611 Lakeview Ave

Rockville Centre, NY 11570

$730,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,968 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,258/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,828
• Tax + insurance: −$1,548
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,104
• Net cashflow: $-1,223/mo
• Annual: $-14,674/yr
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.18%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $204,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $730k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $514k (29.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $526k (28.0% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($719k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $514k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#17 in NY, #365 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Oceanside Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #75 of 590 in NY (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: School 5 (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 448 students, 15% FRL); School 9M-Oceanside Middle School (math 48% / reading 61%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 817 students, 16% FRL); School 7-Oceanside Senior High School (math 91% / reading 96%, grade A+, #131 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 1,692 students, 20% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $469k; list at $730k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.5% in Rockville Centre — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($157k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.