611 Lakeview Ave · Rockville Centre, NY 11570

$730,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,968 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1949 6,000 sqft lot $371/sqft · 37% below area Est $1150k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Amazing and charming colonial style dwelling with exceptional character, great location and incredible potential. Excellent location provides close proximity to many area conveniences, including stores, eateries, parks, schools, and transportation.

Key facts

• Great location
• Eateries
• Stores

Tags

• COLONIAL STYLE DWELLING
• GREAT LOCATION
• STORES
• EATERIES
• PARKS
• SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 garage space; No carport
• Utilities: Sewer: Other; Utilities: See remarks
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story; Property listed as fixer
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Front yard; Back yard; Near public transit; Near schools; Near shops; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; No cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; Primary bathroom with soaking tub; Library/den; Full, unfinished basement; 8 total rooms; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: No appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $730k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $514k (29.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $526k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $514k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.5% in Rockville Centre — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#17 in NY, #365 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Oceanside Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #75 of 590 in NY (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: School 5 (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 448 students, 15% FRL); School 9M-Oceanside Middle School (math 48% / reading 61%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 817 students, 16% FRL); School 7-Oceanside Senior High School (math 91% / reading 96%, grade A+, #131 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 1,692 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($157k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($719k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $469k; list at $730k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $513,983 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.18%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,150,126
• List price: $730,000
• Delta: -36.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
420 Devonshire Rd	0.42mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,985 (+1%)	1mo	$897,000	$452	74
2282 Saratoga St	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,925 (-2%)	4mo	$760,000	$395	72
360 Raymond St	0.16mi	4/2.0	2,223 (+13%)	2mo	$975,000	$439	65
206 Brower Ave	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,893 (-4%)	6mo	$775,000	$409	62
327 N Forest Ave	0.56mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,854 (-6%)	2mo	$999,000	$539	58
14 Denton Ct	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,800 (-8%)	0mo	$849,660	$472	56
134 Fonda Rd	0.33mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,820 (-8%)	6mo	$875,000	$481	56
16 Denton Ct	0.38mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,796 (-9%)	1mo	$955,000	$532	56
2463 Rockville Centre Pkwy	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,045 (+4%)	6mo	$850,000	$416	50
473 Lakeview Ave	0.32mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,700 (-14%)	6mo	$951,000	$559	46
35 Yorkshire Rd	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,788 (-9%)	6mo	$949,000	$531	42
461 N Long Beach Rd	0.59mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,757 (-11%)	3mo	$929,000	$529	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-195,890
• Equity at exit: $108,845

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-269,713
• Equity at exit: $63,117

Cash invested: $204,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11570

• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,258 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,828
• Tax from tax record: −$1,244 /mo · $14,930/yr
• Insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,104
• Net cashflow: $-1,223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,806

Max offer price $513,983

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $182,500
• Closing costs: $21,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 Mayfair Ct Freeport, NY	3.0	2.5	1860	$4,750	$2.55	7d	1	1.19mi
80 N Centre Ave Rockville Centre, NY	3.0	1.0–3.5	1254	$5,875	$4.68	1d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $730,000 Pending 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $730,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $730,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $730,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $730,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $730,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $730,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $730,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $730,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-05-11
    listed $730,000 Active 249-char remark
11. 2017-03-10
    historical
12. 2016-09-08
    listed $549,000 New
13. 2010-11-01
    soldstatus $468,650
14. 1995-07-14
    soldstatus $220,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $14,930 · $1,244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,930 · $1,244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,891
• − Property taxes: −$14,930
• − Insurance: −$3,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,047
• − Management: −$5,047
• − Depreciation: −$21,236
• Taxable loss: −$27,708
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,650
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oceanside Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621570
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $100,802
• Composite: 66.68/100
• National rank: #410
• State rank: #75 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rockville Centre

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #365

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockville Centre, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• City population: 28,908
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,908
• Household income: $157,163
• Rent vs Own: 24.0% rent · 76.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 732.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 4% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -731.15%
• Current HPI: 275.9882
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+231.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listed $730,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-10 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-08 Listed $549,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $468,650 Public Records
• 1995-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $14,930 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.