20151 Seagrove St #207

Estero, FL 33928

$349,900B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,735 sqft · Built 2001 · Condo · Active · 428 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,585/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$456
• HOA: −$1,113
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,173
• Net cashflow: $1,008/mo
• Annual: $12,101/yr
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.35%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 1.60%
• Cash to close: $97,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $350k).
• It's been on market 428 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $308k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewoods Elementary School (math 81% / reading 74%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,089 students, 25% FRL); Estero High School (math 41% / reading 58%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,433 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 57% district-wide (30 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $152k; list at $350k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,585/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 428 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.