20151 Seagrove St #207 · Estero, FL 33928

$349,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,735 sqft · Condo public records · 428 Days on market

Built 2001 $1113/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained home in the highly sought-after Sabal Palm neighborhood of Grandezza. Set within a gated golf community known for its stunning 53,000-square-foot clubhouse, this second-floor residence offers a tranquil and elevated lifestyle in the heart of Estero. This spacious home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a versatile open den—all within 1,473 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. High ceilings and an open-concept layout create an airy, inviting atmosphere, while the den offers flexibility as a home office, reading area, or additional TV room. Offered turnkey furnished, this property allows for a seamless move-in experience. The large

Key facts

• 24 scenic lakes
• Screened lanai
• Open den

Tags

• GATED GOLF COMMUNITY
• 24 SCENIC LAKES
• SECOND-FLOOR RESIDENCE
• OPEN DEN
• SCREENED LANAI
• EASTERN-FACING VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly condo fee; Annual mandatory club fee and one-time club initiation fee; Professional management; HOA covers cable, insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, pest control (exterior), reserves, security, street lights and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool and spa, exercise room, tennis courts, bocce, basketball, putting green, golf course (non-equity), restaurant, sidewalks, internet access, private membership

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned deeded parking space; Detached 1-car garage; Paved driveway; Guest parking available
• Security: Gated community with guard at gate and patrol
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential carriage/coach style unit; Low-rise building (1–3 stories); Rear exposure to the east
• Construction: Built in 2001; Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Single hung and sliding windows
• Exterior features: Pond frontage; Lake view; Reclaimed irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator/ice maker
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms plus den; Master bedroom upstairs; Split bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Smoke detectors; Vaulted ceiling; Walk-in closet; Window coverings; Dining area open to living space; Screened lanai/porch; Turnkey furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in residence; Auto garage door opener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $350k).
• Recommended offer: $308k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewoods Elementary School (math 81% / reading 74%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,089 students, 25% FRL); Estero High School (math 41% / reading 58%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,433 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 57% district-wide (30 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,585/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 428 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $152k; list at $350k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $307,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 428 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.35%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-8,147
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $15,160
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,585 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,719/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$1,113
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,173
• Net cashflow: $1,008

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,308

Max offer price $349,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,207	-5% $1,107	+0% $1,008	+5% $909	+10% $810
Rent	-10% $567	-5% $788	+0% $1,008	+5% $1,229	+10% $1,450
Rate	-1.0pp $1,185	-0.5pp $1,097	base $1,008	+0.5pp $918	+1.0pp $826

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20151 Seagrove St #206 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1735	$6,000	$3.46	24d	1	0.02mi
20161 Seagrove St #102 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1702	$6,000	$3.53	24d	1	0.04mi
20161 Seagrove St #108 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1655	$5,995	$3.62	24d	1	0.04mi
20150 Seagrove St #2701 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1856	$2,895	$1.56	16d	1	0.06mi
20101 Seagrove St #708 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$5,995	$4.19	24d	1	0.13mi
20051 Seagrove St #1202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1567	$5,995	$3.83	24d	1	0.27mi
20112 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2107	$10,750	$5.10	24d	1	0.31mi
20271 Calice Ct #2304 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2009	$10,500	$5.23	24d	1	0.31mi
20057 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1848	$7,000	$3.79	24d	1	0.34mi
20053 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2045	$8,995	$4.40	24d	1	0.35mi
20310 Calice Ct #1202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1569	$5,500	$3.51	24d	1	0.39mi
20099 Seadale Ct Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2079	$5,500	$2.65	24d	1	0.42mi
20083 Seadale Ct Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1981	$10,500	$5.30	24d	1	0.43mi
20240 Burnside Pl #1603 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1656	$5,995	$3.62	24d	1	0.44mi
21301 Lancaster Run #822 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$2,700	$2.38	24d	1	0.51mi
21311 Lancaster Run #721 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$5,499	$4.58	24d	1	0.54mi
21300 Lancaster Run #926 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1360	$2,200	$1.62	11d	1	0.62mi
21330 Lancaster Run #1218 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$2,500	$2.04	22d	1	0.63mi
21330 Lancaster Run Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$2,300	$1.88	24d	2	0.63mi
21361 Lancaster Run #225 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$2,000	$1.76	24d	1	0.65mi
19520 Highland Oaks Dr Estero, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,292	$2.34	2d	18	0.65mi
21340 Lancaster Run #1327 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$2,500	$2.20	24d	1	0.66mi
21371 Lancaster Run #122 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$4,800	$4.23	24d	1	0.66mi
21350 Lancaster Run Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,822	$1.52	3d	2	0.68mi
20092 Palermo Lake Ct Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1975	$7,995	$4.05	24d	1	0.69mi
21370 Lancaster Run #1622 Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$4,500	$3.97	24d	1	0.71mi
12595 Grandezza Cir Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$10,500	$6.37	24d	1	0.74mi
21489 Sheridan Run Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1645	$10,000	$6.08	24d	1	1.00mi
10530 Otter Key Ln Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	2062	$2,995	$1.45	3d	1	1.14mi
20257 Royal Villagio Ct Estero, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1364	$1,950	$1.43	3d	2	1.15mi
20257 Royal Villagio Ct #202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,300	$1.50	24d	1	1.15mi
20651 Wildcat Run Dr #101 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1624	$3,495	$2.15	24d	1	1.17mi
19640 Marino Lake Cir #2602 Miromar Lakes, FL	2.0	2.0	2034	$7,000	$3.44	24d	1	1.17mi
19630 Marino Lake Cir #2702 Miromar Lakes, FL	2.0	2.0	2034	$7,500	$3.69	24d	1	1.20mi
19721 Marino Lake Cir #1002 Miromar Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$5,000	$2.46	12d	1	1.22mi
20202 Ainsley St Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2135	$4,200	$1.97	3d	1	1.24mi
10445 Corkscrew Commons Dr Estero, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$2,060	$2.00	3d	17	1.25mi
10101 Villagio Palms Way Estero, FL	3.0	2.0–2.5	1732	$2,550	$1.47	3d	2	1.25mi
21565 Windham Run Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1947	$3,000	$1.54	24d	1	1.26mi
10541 Marino Pointe Dr #2002 Miromar Lakes, FL	2.0	2.0	2034	$8,500	$4.18	24d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,113 · $13,356/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,900 Active 428 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,900 Active 427 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,900 Active 426 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,900 Active 424 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,900 Active 420 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,900 Active 418 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $349,900 Active 413 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $349,900 Active 412 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $349,900 Active 411 DOM
10. 2026-03-07
    price $349,900
11. 2025-12-30
    price $370,000
12. 2025-04-15
    listed $395,000 Active
13. 2011-08-11
    historical
14. 2011-03-22
    listed $169,000
15. 2001-11-27
    soldstatus $152,285
16. 2001-02-28
    soldstatus $2,334,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,719 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,719 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $67,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$3,719
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,362
• − Management: −$5,362
• − HOA: −$13,356
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable income: $7,693
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,846
• After-tax cash flow: $10,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-85.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $349,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $370,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-04-15 Listed $395,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2011-08-11 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2011-03-22 Listed $169,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2001-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $152,285 Public Records
• 2001-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $2,334,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,719 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.