45 Black Creek Rd

Minetto, NY 13126

$119,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,869/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$348
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $499/mo
• Annual: $5,990/yr
• Cap rate: 11.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.84%
• DSCR: 1.79
• 1% rule: 1.56%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#554 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fulton City School District (town): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #554 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $120k implies a 674% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.4% in Minetto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.