45 Black Creek Rd · Minetto, NY 13126

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2001 4.98 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on a peaceful 4.98-acre lot, this 2001 double-wide home offers privacy, space, and endless potential. Set back from the road, you'll appreciate the quiet country setting and the large, private backyard perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying nature. Inside, you'll find 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, including a primary suite with its own private bath. The spacious kitchen features a center island, pantry, and all appliances are included, providing plenty of storage and workspace for everyday living. Central A/C adds comfort during the warmer months. While the home could benefit from some TLC, it presents a fantastic opportunity for buyers looking to add their own personal

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Spacious kitchen
• 4.98 acre lot

Tags

• 4.98 ACRE LOT
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED
• CENTRAL A C

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Septic tank; Circuit breaker electrical
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; Single-story; Existing (previously built)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Block foundation; Crawl space
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Irregular lot; Main thoroughfare frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Country kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Kitchen island; Bath in primary bedroom; Main level primary
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.4% in Minetto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#554 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fulton City School District (town): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #554 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $120k implies a 674% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.84%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.25% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $26,143
• Equity at exit: $21,906

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $112,466
• Equity at exit: $17,421

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13126

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,580/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,237

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $119,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,580 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,580 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$3,580
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,794
• − Management: −$1,794
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $4,452
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,068
• After-tax cash flow: $4,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton City School District
• NCES district ID: 3611700
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,337
• Composite: 30.49/100
• National rank: #6220
• State rank: #554 of 590 in NY

Livability — Minetto

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #554
• US rank: #9951

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oswego County · 36,495 people
• City population: 223
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,346
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1341.0

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Current HPI: 295.5134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 19.18%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+673.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $119,900 CNYIS
• 2005-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,580 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.