1012 Miller Dr

Cottonwood, AZ 86326

$164,900B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,236/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $627/mo
• Annual: $7,521/yr
• Cap rate: 10.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.29%
• DSCR: 1.72
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $46,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $627 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#7 in AZ, #2,176 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A, cost of living A; Watch: employment D, amenities F.
• Cottonwood-Oak Creek Elementary District (4487) (town): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #174 of 249 in AZ (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Oak Creek Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #548 of 1,109 statewide, top 51%, 235 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.8% in Cottonwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,236/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 894% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.