1012 Miller Dr · Cottonwood, AZ 86326

$164,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 15 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition Est $180k · 8% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled between Mingus Mountain and Sedona's iconic red rocks in the highly sought-after 5-star Active Adult community of On the Greens, this 1,440 sq ft home features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, a versatile office/den, and an attached 2-car garage, providing ample parking, storage, and everyday convenience. Ideally located just a stone's throw from the clubhouse, you'll enjoy quick and easy access to the community's premier amenities and activities. Residents enjoy special rates at Coyote Trails Golf Course along with access to a clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa, pickleball courts, game room, and more. Conveniently situated just 15 minutes from Jerome, 30 minutes from Sedona, 1 hour from Pres

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 2021

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size source: owner
• HOA & community: Land lease (annual: $703.46); No association fees included; Community amenities: pool, community spa, golf, pickleball, tennis courts, biking/walking path, fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured / Mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood siding and vinyl siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Desert front and back yard; Private maintained road; Asphalt road access; Heated spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Laminate counters; Pantry; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Pantry; Full bath in master bedroom; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $627 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.8% in Cottonwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#7 in AZ, #2,176 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A, cost of living A; Watch: employment D, amenities F.
• Cottonwood-Oak Creek Elementary District (4487) (town): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #174 of 249 in AZ (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Oak Creek Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #548 of 1,109 statewide, top 51%, 235 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,236/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 894% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,426 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.29%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
992 Trevino Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,431 (-1%)	3mo	$195,000	$136	84
2050 W SR 89a -- #104	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,456 (+1%)	1mo	$118,000	$81	84
1065 Crenshaw Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$180,000	$125	84
972 Trevino Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,382 (-4%)	2mo	$179,900	$130	80
1216 Hogan Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,600 (+11%)	1mo	$248,000	$155	75
880 W On The Greens Blvd	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+12%)	2mo	$249,900	$154	71
1024 Rankin Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,605 (+12%)	2mo	$199,900	$125	69
2050 W State Route 89a -- #158	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,334 (-7%)	5mo	$130,000	$97	66
2050 W State Route 89a -- #86	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$35,000	$26	59
2050 W State Route 89-a -- #92	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	4mo	$145,000	$108	58
2050 W SR 89-a -- #96	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+9%)	1mo	$155,000	$99	56
2050 W State Route 89a -- #152	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	0mo	$205,000	$153	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $6,678
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $32,030
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86326

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 266
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,236 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,474/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $627

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
992 Sterling Ln Cottonwood, AZ	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,395	$1.45	20d	1	0.32mi
255 S Cottonwood Ranch Rd Cottonwood, AZ	3.0	2.0	1695	$2,195	$1.29	13d	1	1.11mi
1910 W Trail Blazer Dr Cottonwood, AZ	2.0	2.0	1278	$2,900	$2.27	13d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $164,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,474
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,146
• − Management: −$2,146
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $5,205
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,249
• After-tax cash flow: $6,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with modern updates and a good location. It is ready for a new owner to move in.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cottonwood-Oak Creek Elementary District (4487)
• NCES district ID: 0402370
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,740
• Composite: 19.16/100
• National rank: #8822
• State rank: #174 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cottonwood

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #2176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottonwood, AZ
• County: Yavapai County · 190,406 people
• City population: 24,852
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 24,852
• Household income: $57,378
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 894.0

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.27%
• Current HPI: 347.5058
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.22%
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $164,900 ARMLS