5815 SW 22nd Ter #1

Topeka, KS 66614

$125,000D+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,102 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,344/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$300
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $-72/mo
• Annual: $-859/yr
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.45%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-859/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (10.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#195 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Auburn Washburn (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #29 of 169 in KS (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Washburn Rural Middle School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #72 of 219 statewide, top 38%, 943 students, 36% FRL); Washburn Rural High (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #83 of 327 statewide, top 25%, 1,884 students, 31% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.9%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 219 units permitted in Shawnee County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shawnee County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.3% in Topeka — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.