5815 SW 22nd Ter #1 · Topeka, KS 66614

$125,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,102 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $149k · 16% under $300/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

If you are looking for easy living, look no further. This 2-bedroom 1.5-bath condo just became available in Pheasant Run. The wood flooring in the home is newer and the unit has just been freshened up with the timeless "Agreeable Gray" paint. All the amenities you want plus built-ins, an electric fireplace, one assigned covered parking spot and a fenced patio. This unit is on the first floor, near the tennis courts, extra parking and a green space. Act fast and you'll be settled once the community pool is open for relaxation! Call your trusted realtor to Open the Door for you today.

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• Fenced patio
• Community pool

Tags

• WOOD FLOORING
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• FENCED PATIO
• FIRST FLOOR
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $300; HOA covers trash, snow removal, and insurance; Association amenities include pool and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium (residential)
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Community tennis courts; Wood fencing; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Oven; Dishwasher; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air
• Interior features: Electric family room fireplace; Storm doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-859/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (10.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.3% in Topeka — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#195 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Auburn Washburn (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #29 of 169 in KS (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Washburn Rural Middle School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #72 of 219 statewide, top 38%, 943 students, 36% FRL); Washburn Rural High (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #83 of 327 statewide, top 25%, 1,884 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.9%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 219 units permitted in Shawnee County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shawnee County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,352 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.45%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,770
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5628 SW 18th St	0.72mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,152 (+4%)	8mo	$156,000	$135	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-17,525
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $11,961
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66614

• Rents YoY: 9.9%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,513/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $-72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,435

Max offer price $112,352

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5733 SW 20th St Topeka, KS	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,395	$0.96	20d	1	0.43mi
2310 SW Fairlawn Rd Topeka, KS	2.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	20d	1	0.63mi
5237 SW 20th Ter Topeka, KS	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,205	$1.15	20d	1	0.67mi
2320 SW Valley Brook Ln Topeka, KS	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	20d	1	0.91mi
2937 SW McClure Rd Topeka, KS	2.0	1.0	822	$795	$0.97	20d	1	0.93mi
1618 SW Chelsea Dr Topeka, KS	2.0	1.0	768	$1,045	$1.36	20d	1	0.94mi
1700 SW Amhurst Rd Topeka, KS	3.0	1.5	1118	$1,350	$1.21	20d	1	0.97mi
2211 SW Burnett Rd Topeka, KS	3.0	1.0	1239	$1,595	$1.29	20d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $125,000 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $130,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-05-03
    status Pending
12. 2026-04-29
    listed $130,000 Active
13. 2008-10-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,513 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,762 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$250/yr (+$21/mo · 16.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,513
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,291
• − Management: −$1,291
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,825
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$678
• After-tax cash flow: $-181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Auburn Washburn
• NCES district ID: 2003200
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $71,903
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5073
• State rank: #29 of 169 in KS

Livability — Topeka

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #8848

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Topeka, KS
• County: Shawnee County · 118,130 people
• City population: 118,130
• Metro: Topeka, KS
• Population (ZIP): 32,538
• Household income: $71,377
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 852.0

Population outlook (Shawnee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,277 people
• By 2030: 177,762 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 172,341 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 166,330 · -7.2%
• By 2075: 152,417 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 134,782 · -24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shawnee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.3% · R 48.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -0.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+3.0 2016: R+2.8 2012: R+1.7 2008: R+0.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.56%
• Current HPI: 225.5592
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.88%
• Metro: Topeka, KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — Sunflower MLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-29 Listed $130,000 Sunflower MLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2008-10-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,513 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.