4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,948 sqft ·
Built 2011
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 77 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,916/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,264
Tax + insurance
−$474
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$402
Net cashflow
$-224/mo
Annual
$-2,687/yr
Cap rate
5.80%
Cash-on-cash
-1.76%
DSCR
0.92
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$67,480
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $241k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-224 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (16.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (20.5% below list).
It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $192k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#180 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
Vernon Parish (rural): math 35% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #18 of 98 in LA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Rosepine Elementary School (math 25% / reading 50%, grade F, #247 of 646 statewide, top 39%, 830 students, 55% FRL); Vernon Middle School (math 30% / reading 41%, grade F, #91 of 218 statewide, top 42%, 477 students, 60% FRL); Leesville High School (math 32% / reading 54%, grade F, #66 of 265 statewide, top 25%, 884 students, 47% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.6%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 26 units permitted in Vernon Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Vernon County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 3 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29