3 Fairview Rd

Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$999,999B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,074 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Pending · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,338/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,244
• Tax + insurance: −$799
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,171
• Net cashflow: $2,124/mo
• Annual: $25,484/yr
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.34%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $280,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1000k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $1000k).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($910k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $910k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $280k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $10,338/mo this rent would consume 93% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.