3 Fairview Rd · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$999,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,074 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1993 0.68 ac lot Est $1108k · 10% under ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

House is going to be completely updated

Key facts

• 0.68 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1993

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1000k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $1000k).
• Recommended offer: $910k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,338/mo this rent would consume 93% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $280k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($910k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $909,999 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.34%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,107,516
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Fairview Rd	0.12mi	4/3.0	1,763 (-15%)	6mo	$885,000	$502	60
7 Washington Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	2,060 (-1%)	13mo	$1,100,000	$534	58
16 Squires Ave	0.38mi	4/2.5	1,840 (-11%)	5mo	$1,060,000	$576	57
96 W Tiana Rd	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,380 (+15%)	3mo	$1,180,000	$496	56
134 W Tiana Rd	0.23mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,200 (+6%)	21mo	$852,000	$387	52
15 Osprey Ave	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,200 (+6%)	2mo	$1,700,000	$773	50
21 Bellows Ter	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,293 (+11%)	12mo	$1,150,000	$502	46
50 Sherwood Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,804 (-13%)	7mo	$1,099,000	$609	44
46 W Tiana Rd	0.66mi	4/3.0	1,984 (-4%)	17mo	$1,167,500	$588	44
82 W Tiana Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,800 (-13%)	20mo	$755,000	$419	44
4 Beechnut Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-13%)	10mo	$1,160,000	$644	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $27,469
• Equity at exit: $149,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $445,212
• Equity at exit: $86,462

Cash invested: $280,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,338 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,244
• Tax from tax record: −$327 /mo · $3,925/yr
• Insurance: −$417
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,171
• Net cashflow: $2,124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,650

Max offer price $999,999

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,690	-5% $2,407	+0% $2,124	+5% $1,841	+10% $1,558
Rent	-10% $1,307	-5% $1,715	+0% $2,124	+5% $2,532	+10% $2,940
Rate	-1.0pp $2,627	-0.5pp $2,378	base $2,124	+0.5pp $1,865	+1.0pp $1,601

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $250,000
• Closing costs: $30,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
58 Homewood Dr Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	2700	$17,000	$6.30	25d	1	0.17mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1697	$18,000	$10.61	0d	1	0.27mi
10 Foxboro Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2308	$17,000	$7.37	44d	1	0.30mi
45 Bellows Ter Unit B Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	44d	1	0.41mi
26 Squires Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	2.5	2950	$7,000	$2.37	44d	1	0.51mi
15 Birchwood Ln East Quogue, NY	3.0	3.0	1635	$5,000	$3.06	44d	1	0.64mi
13 Beachland Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2028	$38,000	$18.74	23d	1	0.75mi
8 Hyler Dr Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2808	$18,000	$6.41	44d	1	0.92mi
4 Aerie Way East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2400	$11,000	$4.58	16d	1	0.96mi
5 Hyler Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$14,000	$7.00	19d	1	0.96mi
35 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1484	$35,000	$23.58	25d	1	1.00mi
61 Atlantic Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	2130	$25,000	$11.74	7d	1	1.00mi
20 Marlin Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$10,000	$5.00	44d	1	1.03mi
58 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$10,000	$6.25	44d	1	1.03mi
16 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2300	$8,000	$3.48	15d	1	1.03mi
10 Skyes Neck Ct East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2249	$80,000	$35.57	25d	1	1.05mi
23 Whiting Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.5	2296	$60,000	$26.13	23d	1	1.07mi
4 Bennett Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2144	$11,000	$5.13	6d	1	1.13mi
4 Bennett Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2400	$11,000	$4.58	18d	1	1.13mi
156 Maggie Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2700	$95,000	$35.19	44d	1	1.14mi
1 Candace Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	3000	$25,000	$8.33	44d	1	1.17mi
3 Bennett Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2673	$5,000	$1.87	44d	1	1.17mi
23 E Point Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.5	2614	$69,000	$26.40	25d	1	1.38mi
3 Harbor Rd Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	2.5	2500	$25,000	$10.00	8d	1	1.47mi
14 Canal Way Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	2000	$59,000	$29.50	25d	1	1.47mi
5 Mill Race Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	3000	$15,000	$5.00	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-09
   price $999,999
3. 2025-12-19
   listed $1,499,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,925 · $327/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,412 · $868/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,488/yr (+$541/mo · 165.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $124,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$56,015
• − Property taxes: −$3,925
• − Insurance: −$5,666
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,924
• − Management: −$9,924
• − Depreciation: −$29,091
• Taxable income: $9,509
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,282
• After-tax cash flow: $23,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $999,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Listed $1,499,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,925 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.