103 Hwy 3448

Coldiron, KY 40988

$50,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1972 · Other · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $908/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $340/mo
• Annual: $4,081/yr
• Cap rate: 15.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.00%
• DSCR: 2.51
• 1% rule: 1.82%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($908 rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#398 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harlan County (rural): math 16% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #149 of 165 in KY (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $57/mo.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.
• Harlan County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.