103 Hwy 3448 · Coldiron, KY 40988

$50,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Other · 61 Days on market

Built 1972 0.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country setting great views, very peaceful. Currently rented. Extra lot can be purchased for a negotiated price. Buyer/Buyers agent to verify ALL information

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• Built 1972
• Listed 61 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($908 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#398 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harlan County (rural): math 16% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #149 of 165 in KY (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harlan County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $57/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.00%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $15,284
• Equity at exit: $9,259

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $42,829
• Equity at exit: $7,486

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40988

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $908 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $452/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$57 /mo · $680/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $478

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $50,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-04-18
    listed $50,000 Active 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    Country setting great views, very peaceful. Currently rented. Extra lot can be purchased for a negotiated price. Buyer/Buyers agent to verify ALL information

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $452 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $452 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$452
• − Insurance: −$930
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$872
• − Management: −$872
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $3,516
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$844
• After-tax cash flow: $3,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlan County
• NCES district ID: 2102540
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -24.00%
• Median HH income: $26,283
• Composite: 20.13/100
• National rank: #8642
• State rank: #149 of 165 in KY

Livability — Coldiron

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #19093

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 399

Population outlook (Harlan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,324 people
• By 2030: 22,492 · -7.5%
• By 2040: 19,052 · -21.7%
• By 2050: 16,060 · -34.0%
• By 2075: 10,525 · -56.7%
• By 2100: 6,933 · -71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harlan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.2) · D 11.6% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -76.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.2 2020: R+71.8 2016: R+72.2 2012: R+64.0 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.20%
• Current HPI: 123.3602
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $50,000 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $452 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.