102 Jones Cir

Erwin, TN 37650

$99,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 958 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $995/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $127/mo
• Annual: $1,530/yr
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($995 rent vs $99k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Unicoi County (town): math 25% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #88 of 139 in TN (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Love Chapel Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 362 students, 0% FRL); Unicoi Co Middle School (math 26% / reading 22%, grade F, #160 of 333 statewide, top 48%, 446 students, 0% FRL); Unicoi Co High School (math 8% / reading 34%, grade F, #174 of 332 statewide, top 52%, 713 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 24 units permitted in Unicoi County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Unicoi County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 9→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.5% in Erwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.