102 Jones Cir · Erwin, TN 37650

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 958 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1978 0.31 ac lot Est $176k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Multiple Offers! Highest and Best is due by 6/3/26 at 1:00 pm. Great home with convenient location in Erwin. Home offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, downstairs bonus room. Nice, oversized lot. Sold as-is. All information subject to errors and omissions. All information taken from tax records. Buyers to verify all information. Seller and listing agent are not responsible.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Built 1978
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family house; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other roof type
• Exterior features: Level and sloped topography

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling; Cooling provided (heat pump)
• Interior features: Total of 6 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($995 rent vs $99k).
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.5% in Erwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Unicoi County (town): math 25% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #88 of 139 in TN (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Love Chapel Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 362 students, 0% FRL); Unicoi Co Middle School (math 26% / reading 22%, grade F, #160 of 333 statewide, top 48%, 446 students, 0% FRL); Unicoi Co High School (math 8% / reading 34%, grade F, #174 of 332 statewide, top 52%, 713 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 24 units permitted in Unicoi County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Unicoi County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 9→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,272
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Spar Mill Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	2mo	$160,000	$152	75
120 Walker Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	924 (-4%)	17mo	$129,900	$141	58
527 Monroe St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,044 (+9%)	11mo	$152,000	$146	52
335 Catawba St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,048 (+9%)	10mo	$160,000	$153	43
715 Ohio Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,067 (+11%)	7mo	$229,000	$215	43
134 Parsley St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+15%)	2mo	$210,500	$191	32
156 Madison St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,095 (+14%)	19mo	$214,000	$195	24
319 Clinchfield Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (+14%)	20mo	$201,000	$184	20
1518 Chestoa Pike	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-15%)	24mo	$150,000	$184	13

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-7,925
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $3,550
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37650

• Home prices YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,178/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $834

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
218 N Willow Ave Unit 10 Erwin, TN	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	13d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $99,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   remarks 369-char remark
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   remarks 306-char remark
7. 2026-06-01
   listed $99,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,178 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,178 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥91°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,178
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$955
• − Management: −$955
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$69
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17
• After-tax cash flow: $1,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Unicoi County
• NCES district ID: 4704230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,366
• Composite: 21.08/100
• National rank: #8443
• State rank: #88 of 139 in TN

Livability — Erwin

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #17531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erwin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 13,109

Population outlook (Unicoi County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,083 people
• By 2030: 16,570 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 15,389 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 14,270 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 12,302 · -28.0%
• By 2100: 10,812 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Unicoi

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.0) · D 18.5% · R 80.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -40.2pp · 2024: -62.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.0 2020: R+60.0 2016: R+61.5 2012: R+44.1 2008: R+40.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.18%
• Current HPI: 290.1171
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+175.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $99,000 TVRMLS
• 2022-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $197,500 Public Records
• 2016-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 1996-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $57,250 Public Records
• 1983-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 1980-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records
• 1979-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,178 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.