111 Spier Rd

Scarsdale, NY 10583

$1,600,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,892 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,338/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,391
• Tax + insurance: −$2,702
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,171
• Net cashflow: $-2,926/mo
• Annual: $-35,107/yr
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.69%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $448,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.60M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-35k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.08M (32.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.03M (35.4% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.50M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.03M (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $48k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#496 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Scarsdale Union Free School District (suburban): math 87% / reading 92% proficiency, ranked #1 of 590 in NY (top 0%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 293 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 17678% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $887k; list at $1.60M implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 0.6% in Scarsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $10,338/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($250k/yr) (locally 560% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?