111 Spier Rd · Scarsdale, NY 10583

$1,600,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,892 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1956 0.50 ac lot $553/sqft · 21% below area Est $2019k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +9.3/10.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly renovated and expanded Colonial set on a picturesque half acre property on a quiet street in lovely Quaker Ridge neighborhood. Thoughtful renovations include a smart, open floor plan featuring a sunny living room, a formal dining room, and a chef’s kitchen with adjoining family room, providing an ideal layout for everyday living and easy entertaining. The chef’s kitchen is anchored by a large center island, stainless steel appliances, and flows seamlessly into the family room. Floor-to-ceiling windows fill the space with natural light and capture year-round views of the lush property and idyllic stream. A new powder room is also conveniently located in the entry hall on this main level. The second level offers a primary bedroom with walk-in-closet and new ensuite primary bath, three additional bedrooms, and a sparkling new hall bath. The lower level provides excellent additional living space, with a large recreation room, along with the laundry, and a full bath. There is direct walk-out access to a raised stone patio which overlooks serene woods and a picturesque stream. Additional amenities include gas heat, central air, and attached garage. Conveniently located close to local parks and has free bus access to Scarsdale High School.

Key facts

• Expanded colonial
• Picturesque stream
• Chef's kitchen

Tags

• EXPANDED COLONIAL
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• FLOOR-TO-CEILING WINDOWS
• RAISED STONE PATIO
• PICTURESQUE STREAM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.60M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-35k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.08M (32.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.03M (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.03M (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 0.6% in Scarsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#496 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Scarsdale Union Free School District (suburban): math 87% / reading 92% proficiency, ranked #1 of 590 in NY (top 0%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 293 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,338/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($250k/yr) (locally 560% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $48k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.50M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 17678% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $887k; list at $1.60M implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,033,837 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.69%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,018,540
• List price: $1,600,000
• Delta: -20.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Coralyn Rd	0.20mi	4/3.5	2,870 (-1%)	5mo	$1,870,000	$652	83
5 Coralyn Rd	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,797 (-3%)	1mo	$2,000,000	$715	81
165 Rock Creek Ln	0.34mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,898 (+0%)	10mo	$1,900,000	$656	70
8 Sylvan Ln	0.22mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,086 (+7%)	10mo	$2,238,000	$725	65
25 Myrtledale Rd	0.50mi	4/3.5	2,836 (-2%)	12mo	$2,450,000	$864	61
13 Romar Ave	0.47mi	4/2.5	3,002 (+4%)	10mo	$1,150,000	$383	61
66 Secor Rd	0.69mi	4/3.5	2,980 (+3%)	5mo	$2,408,000	$808	56
24 Chesley Rd	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,921 (+1%)	14mo	$1,325,000	$454	56
21 Springdale Rd	0.47mi	4/3.5	2,638 (-9%)	7mo	$2,227,550	$844	55
17 Aspen Rd	0.45mi	4/3.5	3,215 (+11%)	10mo	$2,260,000	$703	49
50 Black Birch Ln	0.26mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,281 (+14%)	12mo	$2,318,000	$706	47
1 Teramar Way	0.50mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,181 (+10%)	11mo	$1,360,000	$428	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-445,421
• Equity at exit: $238,565

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-627,072
• Equity at exit: $138,339

Cash invested: $448,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10583

• Active inventory: 293
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,338 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,391
• Tax from tax record: −$1,980 /mo · $23,761/yr
• Insurance: −$667
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,171
• Net cashflow: $-2,926

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,042

Max offer price $1,083,188

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,020	-5% $-2,473	+0% $-2,926	+5% $-3,378	+10% $-3,831
Rent	-10% $-3,742	-5% $-3,334	+0% $-2,926	+5% $-2,517	+10% $-2,109
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,120	-0.5pp $-2,519	base $-2,926	+0.5pp $-3,340	+1.0pp $-3,762

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $400,000
• Closing costs: $48,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1144 Post Rd Scarsdale, NY	5.0	5.5	3187	$14,000	$4.39	25d	1	1.40mi
372 Heathcote Rd Scarsdale, NY	4.0	3.0	2826	$12,000	$4.25	0d	1	1.49mi
134 Old Mamaroneck Rd White Plains, NY	4.0	1.5	2586	$7,000	$2.71	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $1,600,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,800,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,800,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,800,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,800,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,800,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-04-19
    price $1,800,000 1275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1275 chars)

    Newly renovated and expanded Colonial set on a picturesque half acre property on a quiet street in lovely Quaker Ridge neighborhood. Thoughtful renovations include a smart, open floor plan featuring a sunny living room, a formal dining room, and a chef’s kitchen with adjoining family room, providing an ideal layout for everyday living and easy entertaining. The chef’s kitchen is anchored by a large center island, stainless steel appliances, and flows seamlessly into the family room. Floor-to-ceiling windows fill the space with natural light and capture year-round views of the lush property and idyllic stream. A new powder room is also conveniently located in the entry hall on this main level. The second level offers a primary bedroom with walk-in-closet and new ensuite primary bath, three additional bedrooms, and a sparkling new hall bath. The lower level provides excellent additional living space, with a large recreation room, along with the laundry, and a full bath. There is direct walk-out access to a raised stone patio which overlooks serene woods and a picturesque stream. Additional amenities include gas heat, central air, and attached garage. Conveniently located close to local parks and has free bus access to Scarsdale High School.

16. 2026-04-18
    listed $9,000
17. 2026-03-23
    listed $1,488,000 Active 1275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1275 chars)

    Newly renovated and expanded Colonial set on a picturesque half acre property on a quiet street in lovely Quaker Ridge neighborhood. Thoughtful renovations include a smart, open floor plan featuring a sunny living room, a formal dining room, and a chef’s kitchen with adjoining family room, providing an ideal layout for everyday living and easy entertaining. The chef’s kitchen is anchored by a large center island, stainless steel appliances, and flows seamlessly into the family room. Floor-to-ceiling windows fill the space with natural light and capture year-round views of the lush property and idyllic stream. A new powder room is also conveniently located in the entry hall on this main level. The second level offers a primary bedroom with walk-in-closet and new ensuite primary bath, three additional bedrooms, and a sparkling new hall bath. The lower level provides excellent additional living space, with a large recreation room, along with the laundry, and a full bath. There is direct walk-out access to a raised stone patio which overlooks serene woods and a picturesque stream. Additional amenities include gas heat, central air, and attached garage. Conveniently located close to local parks and has free bus access to Scarsdale High School.

18. 2023-04-22
    status Active
19. 2023-04-22
    historical
20. 2023-03-31
    status Active
21. 2023-03-30
    historical
22. 2023-03-07
    listed $1,380,000 Active
23. 2022-04-11
    soldstatus $887,250
24. 2022-04-04
    soldstatus $887,250 Closed
25. 2022-01-08
    status Pending
26. 2021-12-13
    listed $900,000 Active
27. 2021-12-11
    historical
28. 2021-09-28
    price $999,000
29. 2021-07-21
    listed $1,200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $23,761 · $1,980/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $25,401 · $2,117/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,639/yr (+$137/mo · 6.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $124,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,625
• − Property taxes: −$23,761
• − Insurance: −$8,666
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,925
• − Management: −$9,925
• − Depreciation: −$46,545
• Taxable loss: −$64,387
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$15,453
• After-tax cash flow: $-19,654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scarsdale Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625950
• Math proficiency: 87% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 92% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $227,871
• Composite: 92.53/100
• National rank: #1
• State rank: #1 of 590 in NY

Livability — Scarsdale

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #496
• US rank: #8716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scarsdale, NY
• County: Westchester County · 709,332 people
• City population: 10,274
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 40,207
• Household income: $250,001
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 560.0

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 5% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Other Indo-European 8% Chinese 6% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -851.83%
• Current HPI: 283.4725
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $1,800,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Listed for Rent $9,000 ONEKEY
• 2026-03-23 Listed $1,488,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-22 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-31 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-07 Listed $1,380,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $887,250 Public Records
• 2022-04-04 Sold (MLS) $887,250 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-08 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-13 Listed $900,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-28 Price Changed $999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-21 Listed $1,200,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $23,761 · +23.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.