4047 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir

Jensen Beach, FL 34957

$210,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,037 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,104/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$268
• HOA: −$506
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-213/mo
• Annual: $-2,557/yr
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.35%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-213 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (17.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#432 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 539 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $210k implies a 296% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.1% in Jensen Beach — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.