4047 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir · Jensen Beach, FL 34957

$210,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,037 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1981 $203/sqft · 10% below area Est $232k · 10% under $506/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover coastal living at its finest in this gorgeous 2-bedroom, 2-bath villa located in Jensen Beach. This clean & inviting home features a fully renovated kitchen complete w/ white shaker-style cabinets & quartz countertops. Tile floors run throughout, offering both durability & ease of maintenance. An enclosed patio adds valuable extra living space—offering flexible options to suit your lifestyle. For peace of mind during storm season, the home is equipped with accordion shutters for convenient hurricane protection. The monthly HOA fee covers exterior building insurance, water, sewer, garbage, lawn care, cable & internet —giving you a truly low-maintenance lifestyle. Enjoy access to the community pool, ideal for relaxation & socializing. Ideal for all buyers—including investors—as the unit can be leased immediately. 1 pet under 25 lbs allowed, minimum of 6 months rental, no motorcyles, no commerical vehicles. Close to beaches, shopping & restaurants. Move in ready!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Accordion shutters
• Enclosed patio

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• ACCORDION SHUTTERS
• ENCLOSED PATIO
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-213 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (17.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.1% in Jensen Beach — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#432 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 539 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $210k implies a 296% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,364 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.35%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,162
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -9.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4083 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	5mo	$212,000	$204	90
4081 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	6mo	$180,000	$174	90
3904 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	3mo	$190,000	$183	89
4065 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	10mo	$196,000	$189	88
3912 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	5mo	$220,000	$212	87
3957 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	8mo	$156,000	$150	87
4054 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	17mo	$195,000	$188	83
4055 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	21mo	$152,500	$147	81
3921 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	17mo	$200,000	$193	77
3917 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	20mo	$165,000	$159	74
3927 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,037 (0%)	21mo	$180,000	$174	73
1750 NW Sunset Blvd	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+4%)	17mo	$300,000	$278	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-51,457
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-77,456
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34957

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 539
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,104 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,163/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$506
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,373

Max offer price $172,364

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-94	-5% $-154	+0% $-213	+5% $-272	+10% $-332
Rent	-10% $-379	-5% $-296	+0% $-213	+5% $-130	+10% $-47
Rate	-1.0pp $-107	-0.5pp $-160	base $-213	+0.5pp $-267	+1.0pp $-323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4041 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1037	$2,000	$1.93	24d	1	0.03mi
4116 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1037	$2,100	$2.03	15d	1	0.15mi
3904 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1037	$2,000	$1.93	24d	1	0.18mi
3769 NW Mediterranean Ln Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	795	$1,700	$2.14	24d	1	0.46mi
3614 NW Adriatic Ln Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	781	$1,550	$1.98	24d	1	0.49mi
3655 NW Adriatic Ln #307 Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	781	$1,595	$2.04	15d	1	0.49mi
3663 NW Adriatic Ln Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,195	$1.75	15d	1	0.49mi
3605 NW Adriatic Ln Unit 7-103 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,850	$1.73	15d	1	0.49mi
3628 NW Adriatic Ln Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,875	$1.76	15d	1	0.49mi
3620 NW Adriatic Ln #306 Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	781	$1,595	$2.04	24d	1	0.49mi
3690 NW Mediterranean Ln Unit 12-305 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,850	$1.73	24d	1	0.49mi
3805 NW Mediterranean Ln Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,975	$1.85	15d	1	0.49mi
3624 NW Adriatic Ln Unit 308 Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	781	$1,659	$2.12	24d	1	0.50mi
3781 NW Willow Creek Dr Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1330	$2,700	$2.03	24d	1	0.50mi
3751 NW Willow Creek Dr Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1467	$2,900	$1.98	24d	1	0.52mi
3617 NW Adriatic Ln Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	802	$1,595	$1.99	24d	1	0.54mi
2444 SE Garden Ter Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	861	$1,950	$2.26	15d	1	0.84mi
2416 SE Garden Ter #203 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	861	$1,700	$1.97	24d	1	0.87mi
2774 SE Brevard Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1358	$2,500	$1.84	24d	1	0.90mi
2289 SE Seamist St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1008	$2,500	$2.48	24d	1	1.24mi
1010 NW Fresco Way Jensen Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$2,122	$2.10	15d	10	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $506 · $6,072/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashinternetcablelandscapinginsurancepool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $210,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    listed $210,000 Active 1043-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1043 chars)

    Discover coastal living at its finest in this gorgeous 2-bedroom, 2-bath villa located in Jensen Beach. This clean & inviting home features a fully renovated kitchen complete w/ white shaker-style cabinets & quartz countertops. Tile floors run throughout, offering both durability & ease of maintenance. An enclosed patio adds valuable extra living space—offering flexible options to suit your lifestyle. For peace of mind during storm season, the home is equipped with accordion shutters for convenient hurricane protection. The monthly HOA fee covers exterior building insurance, water, sewer, garbage, lawn care, cable & internet —giving you a truly low-maintenance lifestyle. Enjoy access to the community pool, ideal for relaxation & socializing. Ideal for all buyers—including investors—as the unit can be leased immediately. 1 pet under 25 lbs allowed, minimum of 6 months rental, no motorcyles, no commerical vehicles. Close to beaches, shopping & restaurants. Move in ready!

18. 2026-04-04
    historical $2,000
19. 2026-04-03
    price $2,000
20. 2026-03-13
    price $2,100
21. 2026-02-26
    listed $2,200
22. 2009-10-22
    soldstatus $53,000
23. 1993-08-06
    soldstatus $49,900
24. 1993-03-29
    soldstatus $928,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,163 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,163 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$2,163
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,020
• − Management: −$2,020
• − HOA: −$6,072
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$5,952
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,428
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin
• NCES district ID: 1201290
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,482
• Composite: 45.1/100
• National rank: #2690
• State rank: #24 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jensen Beach

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #432
• US rank: #7719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jensen Beach, FL
• County: Martin County · 165,223 people
• City population: 23,462
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,462
• Household income: $70,403
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 172,383 people
• By 2030: 180,192 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 194,114 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 204,992 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 229,641 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 232,146 · +34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.9 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -319.66%
• Current HPI: 340.0172
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.00%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-77.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $210,000 MCRTC
• 2026-04-04 Rental Removed $2,000 MCRTC
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $2,000 MCRTC
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $2,100 MCRTC
• 2026-02-26 Listed for Rent $2,200 MCRTC
• 2009-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1993-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 1993-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $928,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,163 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.