3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,349 sqft ·
Built 2009
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 13 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,882/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,332
Tax + insurance
−$226
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$395
Net cashflow
$-71/mo
Annual
$-852/yr
Cap rate
5.96%
Cash-on-cash
-1.20%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.74%
Cash to close
$71,120
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $254k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-852/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (4.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (25.9% below list).
Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $188k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#13 in LA, #3,224 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Marigny Elementary School (456 students, 33% FRL); Mandeville Middle School (math 61% / reading 69%, grade A-, #8 of 218 statewide, top 3%, 538 students, 23% FRL); Lakeshore High School (math 42% / reading 61%, grade D+, #35 of 265 statewide, top 13%, 949 students, 34% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.4% in Mandeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-7PX1B74T90EKEM
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29