434 Oregon Trl

Swansboro, NC 28539

$234,800D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Pending · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,840/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,231
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $30/mo
• Annual: $364/yr
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.55%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $65,744

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($364/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (21.6% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in NC, #3,124 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sand Ridge Elementary (math 57% / reading 54%, grade C, #293 of 1,410 statewide, top 21%, 581 students, 58% FRL); Swansboro Middle (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C+, #87 of 475 statewide, top 19%, 967 students, 43% FRL); Swansboro High (math 77% / reading 68%, grade B+, #104 of 535 statewide, top 19%, 1,115 students, 38% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Onslow County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $235k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.4% in Swansboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.