434 Oregon Trl · Swansboro, NC 28539

$234,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1996 0.31 ac lot Est $275k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 434 Oregon Trail in Hubert--where comfort, convenience, and coastal living come together! This well-maintained home offers a spacious and functional layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy a bright and inviting living area, a well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinet space, and generously sized bedrooms for everyone to spread out. Step outside to a large yard--ideal for relaxing, gardening, or hosting gatherings. Located just minutes from Camp Lejeune, area beaches, and local shopping and dining, this home offers the perfect blend of peaceful living with easy access to everything you need. Whether you're a first-time buyer, military family, or looking to downsi

Key facts

• Bright living area
• Minutes from beaches
• Large yard

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• BRIGHT LIVING AREA
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• MINUTES FROM BEACHES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Paved parking; 1 total parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Patio; Chain-link fence; Has view; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Window coverings; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in garage; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($364/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.5% in Swansboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in NC, #3,124 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sand Ridge Elementary (math 57% / reading 54%, grade C, #293 of 1,410 statewide, top 21%, 581 students, 58% FRL); Swansboro Middle (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C+, #87 of 475 statewide, top 19%, 967 students, 43% FRL); Swansboro High (math 77% / reading 68%, grade B+, #104 of 535 statewide, top 19%, 1,115 students, 38% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Onslow County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 322 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $235k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,970 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.55%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $274,536
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
142 Rosemary Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,433 (-3%)	1mo	$270,000	$188	78
306 Foxtrace Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-2%)	3mo	$244,995	$169	62
200 Tappi Ter	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,261 (-15%)	8mo	$272,000	$216	62
212 Tappi Ter	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,692 (+15%)	3mo	$315,000	$186	60
402 Crown Point Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-7%)	7mo	$215,000	$156	56
625 Parsley Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,589 (+8%)	5mo	$310,000	$195	55
56 Riegel Dr	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,428 (-3%)	5mo	$70,000	$49	54
314 Dayrell Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,351 (-8%)	1mo	$275,000	$204	54
403 E Volant St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-8%)	6mo	$234,900	$173	52
223 Lockwood Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,291 (-12%)	1mo	$278,000	$215	50
306 Basil Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+12%)	5mo	$300,000	$182	49
48 Riegel Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,314 (-11%)	9mo	$233,000	$177	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-36,932
• Equity at exit: $35,009

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-32,988
• Equity at exit: $20,301

Cash invested: $65,744 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28539

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 322
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,840 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,231
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,127/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,801

Max offer price $234,800

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $97	+0% $30	+5% $-36	+10% $-103
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $-42	+0% $30	+5% $103	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $149	-0.5pp $90	base $30	+0.5pp $-31	+1.0pp $-92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,700
• Closing costs: $7,044
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
135 Rosemary Ave Hubert, NC	3.0	2.5	1610	$2,100	$1.30	22d	1	0.37mi
212 W Volant St Hubert, NC	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,750	$1.43	22d	1	0.52mi
400 Dayrell Dr Hubert, NC	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,800	$1.42	22d	1	0.70mi
21 Crown Point Rd Hubert, NC	4.0	2.5	1290	$1,450	$1.12	22d	1	0.73mi
309 N Winchester Ln Hubert, NC	4.0	2.0	1456	$1,700	$1.17	22d	1	1.20mi
136 Byrum Run Hubert, NC	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,800	$1.55	22d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   price $234,800
3. 2026-04-25
   price $234,900
4. 2026-03-27
   listed $239,900 Active
5. 2010-04-22
   soldstatus $140,000
6. 2001-12-04
   soldstatus $73,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,127 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,925 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$798/yr (+$67/mo · 70.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,152
• − Property taxes: −$1,127
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,766
• − Management: −$1,766
• − Depreciation: −$6,831
• Taxable loss: −$3,740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$898
• After-tax cash flow: $1,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onslow County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703450
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,076
• Composite: 38.66/100
• National rank: #4148
• State rank: #84 of 178 in NC

Livability — Swansboro

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #3124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Onslow County · 164,453 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 18,351
• Household income: $66,976
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Onslow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,789 people
• By 2030: 194,463 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 193,629 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 193,248 · +1.8%
• By 2075: 196,995 · +3.8%
• By 2100: 201,513 · +6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onslow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.5% · R 67.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.5pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+34.6 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.68%
• Current HPI: 186.871
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+221.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $234,800 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $234,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $239,900 Hive MLS
• 2010-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2001-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,127 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.