12 Warrington Dr

Lake Bluff, IL 60044

$899,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,894 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,195/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax + insurance: −$1,291
• HOA: −$201
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-4,472/mo
• Annual: $-53,666/yr
• Cap rate: 0.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -21.32%
• DSCR: 0.05
• 1% rule: 0.24%
• Cash to close: $251,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $899k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-54k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (75.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (75.6% below list).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($845k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (75.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#76 in IL, #1,225 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Lake Forest Chsd 115 (suburban): math 66% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #9 of 620 in IL (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Bluff Elem Sch (math 70% / reading 50%, grade B-, #68 of 2,056 statewide, top 4%, 570 students, 0% FRL); Lake Bluff Middle School (math 50% / reading 50%, grade C, #51 of 665 statewide, top 9%, 288 students, 0% FRL); Lake Forest High School (math 66% / reading 68%, grade B, #10 of 693 statewide, top 1%, 1,438 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $290k; list at $899k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 0.3% vs local median 3.0% in Lake Bluff — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 76% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.