3440 CR 656

Ridge Manor, FL 33597

$230,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,759/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-25/mo
• Annual: $-297/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-297/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (23.5% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $176k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#736 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $230k implies a 1384% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in Ridge Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.