3440 CR 656 · Ridge Manor, FL 33597

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1995 2.73 ac lot Est $201k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Like new home on almost 3 acres with plenty of room for anything and everything! Enjoy peaceful country living on your spacious deck overlooking 2 acres of mature trees. New kitchen, bathrooms, luxury vinyl flooring, well pump, AC and paint. Make an offer before someone else does!

Key facts

• New kitchen
• Almost 3 acres
• Spacious deck

Tags

• ALMOST 3 ACRES
• SPACIOUS DECK
• MATURE TREES
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW BATHROOMS
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-297/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in Ridge Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#736 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $230k implies a 1384% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,925 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,928
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3440 CR 656	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$230,000	$184	99
11916 SW 36th Ter	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-4%)	10mo	$193,000	$161	72
11587 CR 675w	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	14mo	$168,225	$135	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-38,926
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-36,253
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33597

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,759 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,351/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,791

Max offer price $225,632

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $230,000 Active
3. 1994-01-01
   soldstatus $15,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,351 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,909 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$558/yr (+$47/mo · 41.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,351
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,689
• − Management: −$1,689
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,342
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,042
• After-tax cash flow: $745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ridge Manor

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #736
• US rank: #15912

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,424

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.59%
• Current HPI: 282.5139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1383.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,351 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.