None

Oro Valley, AZ 85737

$687,640F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,776 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,495/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,606
• Tax + insurance: −$1,146
• HOA: −$90
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$734
• Net cashflow: $-2,081/mo
• Annual: $-24,973/yr
• Cap rate: 2.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.97%
• DSCR: 0.42
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $192,539

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $688k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $387k (43.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (49.2% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($667k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $350k (49.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#2 in AZ, #1,339 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living D-.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Painted Sky Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #148 of 1,109 statewide, top 15%, 389 students, 16% FRL); Lawrence W Cross Middle School (math 43% / reading 56%, grade C, #29 of 218 statewide, top 13%, 756 students, 26% FRL); Ironwood Ridge High School (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #80 of 381 statewide, top 21%, 1,556 students, 16% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Amphitheater Unified District (4406) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.