None · Oro Valley, AZ 85737

$687,640

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,776 sqft · Land · 41 Days on market

Built 2026 7,258 sqft lot $90/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new, energy-efficient home available March 2026! This spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bath home offers plenty of room for guests, plus a versatile Teen Room ideal for an office or additional living space. Interior highlights include soft frost cabinets, creamy quartz countertops, natural wood-style flooring, and warm taupe carpet from the Modern Rustic design package. Naranja Trails is now selling in Oro Valley this Spring, with homes starting in the low $600s. This gated community will feature scenic walking trails and sits just across from beautiful Naranja Park. Each home is built with innovative, energy-efficient features to deliver more savings, better health, real comfort, and lasting pea

Key facts

• 7,258 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $688k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $387k (43.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (49.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $350k (49.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#2 in AZ, #1,339 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living D-.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Painted Sky Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #148 of 1,109 statewide, top 15%, 389 students, 16% FRL); Lawrence W Cross Middle School (math 43% / reading 56%, grade C, #29 of 218 statewide, top 13%, 756 students, 26% FRL); Ironwood Ridge High School (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #80 of 381 statewide, top 21%, 1,556 students, 16% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Amphitheater Unified District (4406) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($667k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $349,503 (49.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.97%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 16.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-244,914
• Equity at exit: $102,529

10-year hold

• IRR: -68.8%
• Equity multiple: -1.01×
• Total profit: $-387,789
• Equity at exit: $59,455

Cash invested: $192,539 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85737

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 16.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,606
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$860 /mo · $10,315/yr
• Insurance: −$287
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$734
• Net cashflow: $-2,081

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,129

Max offer price $386,509

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,606	-5% $-1,843	+0% $-2,081	+5% $-2,319	+10% $-2,556
Rent	-10% $-2,357	-5% $-2,219	+0% $-2,081	+5% $-1,943	+10% $-1,805
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,735	-0.5pp $-1,906	base $-2,081	+0.5pp $-2,259	+1.0pp $-2,441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $171,910
• Closing costs: $20,629
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11096 N Pusch Ridge View Pl Tucson, AZ	4.0	3.0	3420	$12,000	$3.51	44d	1	0.18mi
1150 W Masters Cir Tucson, AZ	4.0	3.5	3448	$3,399	$0.99	24d	1	1.19mi
11961 N Silver Village Pl Tucson, AZ	4.0	3.5	3619	$3,950	$1.09	3d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   listed $687,640 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,519
• − Property taxes: −$10,315
• − Insurance: −$3,438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,355
• − Management: −$3,355
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$20,004
• Taxable loss: −$38,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,150
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Oro Valley

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #1339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oro Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 41,345
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,785
• Household income: $107,348
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 666.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.56%
• Current HPI: 261.4417
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-11 Listed $687,640 MLSSAZ