2791 Squaw Valley Trl

Aurora, IL 60503

$449,900D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,289 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Coming Soon · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,326/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax + insurance: −$750
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$699
• Net cashflow: $-481/mo
• Annual: $-5,776/yr
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.59%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $125,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-481 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $380k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (26.1% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($443k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $333k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#232 in IL, #4,272 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• CUSD 308 (suburban): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #179 of 620 in IL (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wolfs Crossing Elem School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #336 of 2,056 statewide, top 18%, 485 students, 0% FRL); Bednarcik Junior High School (math 39% / reading 38%, grade F, #154 of 665 statewide, top 24%, 571 students, 0% FRL); Oswego East High School (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #104 of 693 statewide, top 15%, 2,836 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 20% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,028 units permitted in Will County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Will County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Aurora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.