2791 Squaw Valley Trl · Aurora, IL 60503

$449,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,289 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 1998 7,840 sqft lot Est $472k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: School bus service and commuter bus access; Subdivision: Lakewood Valley; Property located in Aurora (Wheatland Township)
• HOA & community: Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, and a lake; Neighborhood has curbs, sidewalks, street lights and paved streets; Master association fee not required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage owned (2 garage spaces, 2 parking total)
• Utilities: Water from Lake Michigan / public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; 2-story design; Model: Essex C; Fee simple ownership with homeowners association; Rehab completed in 2025
• Construction: Built approximately 26–30 years ago; Aluminum, vinyl, and steel siding; Asphalt roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac; Lot dimensions approximately 71.2 x 132 x 70.9 x 114.8; Lot is less than 0.25 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with eating area/table space (about 12 x 10); Adjacent eating area (12 x 7)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on upper levels with a master suite on the second floor (14 x 12); One additional bedroom in the basement (can be used as a 4th bedroom); Second-floor bedrooms sized approximately 11 x 10 and 10 x 10
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Basement has a bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; Full unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-481 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $380k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $333k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Aurora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#232 in IL, #4,272 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• CUSD 308 (suburban): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #179 of 620 in IL (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wolfs Crossing Elem School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #336 of 2,056 statewide, top 18%, 485 students, 0% FRL); Bednarcik Junior High School (math 39% / reading 38%, grade F, #154 of 665 statewide, top 24%, 571 students, 0% FRL); Oswego East High School (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #104 of 693 statewide, top 15%, 2,836 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 20% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,028 units permitted in Will County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Will County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($443k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $332,637 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.59%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $471,534
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2474 Spring Valley Ct	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,157 (-6%)	8mo	$445,000	$206	74
2664 Stuart Kaplan Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,227 (-3%)	9mo	$410,000	$184	73
2811 Imperial Valley Trl	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,000 (-13%)	0mo	$398,000	$199	70
2715 Lahinch Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,235 (-2%)	11mo	$400,000	$179	60
2382 Shiloh Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,130 (-7%)	1mo	$440,000	$207	59
2578 Wild Dunes Cir	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,139 (-7%)	11mo	$440,000	$206	57
2937 Red Rose Rd	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,511 (+10%)	10mo	$573,000	$228	54
3152 Adelwood Cir	0.72mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,400 (+5%)	0mo	$675,385	$281	53
2721 Lansdale Ave	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,435 (+6%)	2mo	$480,000	$197	50
9623 S Carls Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,468 (+8%)	4mo	$537,000	$218	48
2722 Lahinch Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	1,962 (-14%)	2mo	$442,500	$226	46
2263 Shiloh Dr	0.60mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,556 (+12%)	3mo	$517,500	$202	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $214,422
• Equity at exit: $405,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $655,644
• Equity at exit: $874,057

Cash invested: $125,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60503

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,326 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$562 /mo · $6,748/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$699
• Net cashflow: $-481

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,936

Max offer price $380,251

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-170	-5% $-326	+0% $-481	+5% $-637	+10% $-792
Rent	-10% $-744	-5% $-613	+0% $-481	+5% $-350	+10% $-219
Rate	-1.0pp $-255	-0.5pp $-367	base $-481	+0.5pp $-598	+1.0pp $-717

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,475
• Closing costs: $13,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2873 Carlsbad Cir Aurora, IL	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,990	$1.84	45d	1	0.31mi
2036 Antietam Ct Aurora, IL	4.0	2.5	2345	$3,450	$1.47	4d	1	0.68mi
260 Devoe Dr Oswego, IL	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,400	$1.41	14d	1	0.76mi
464 Valentine Way Oswego, IL	3.0	2.5	2071	$2,800	$1.35	0d	1	0.83mi
2226 Daybreak Dr #2226 Aurora, IL	3.0	2.5	1627	$2,500	$1.54	45d	1	0.93mi
4444 Monroe Ct Unit 4444 Naperville, IL	3.0	2.5	1783	$3,300	$1.85	3d	1	1.12mi
4444 Monroe Ct Naperville, IL	3.0	2.5	1783	$3,300	$1.85	0d	1	1.12mi
4219 Fraser Cir Naperville, IL	5.0	4.0	2800	$4,600	$1.64	0d	1	1.13mi
2909 Madison Dr Naperville, IL	3.0	2.5	1783	$3,095	$1.74	20d	1	1.14mi
159 Chapin Way Oswego, IL	4.0	3.5	2415	$3,500	$1.45	20d	1	1.22mi
2337 Summerlin Dr Aurora, IL	3.0	1.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	45d	1	1.23mi
246 Cooney Way Oswego, IL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,800	$1.58	45d	1	1.30mi
3628 Birch Ln Naperville, IL	4.0	2.5	2697	$4,200	$1.56	17d	1	1.39mi
1801 Turtle Creek Dr Aurora, IL	3.0	2.5	1794	$3,300	$1.84	20d	1	1.41mi
421 Hathaway Ln Oswego, IL	3.0	2.5	2074	$3,850	$1.86	45d	1	1.44mi
2048 Canyon Creek Ct Aurora, IL	4.0	2.5	1794	$3,400	$1.90	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $449,900 Coming Soon 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,900 Coming Soon 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,900 Coming Soon 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,900 Coming Soon 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,900 Coming Soon 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,900 Coming Soon 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,900 Coming Soon 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,900 Coming Soon 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $449,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    listed $449,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,201
• − Property taxes: −$6,748
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,193
• − Management: −$3,193
• − Depreciation: −$13,088
• Taxable loss: −$13,758
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,302
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: CUSD 308
• NCES district ID: 1730270
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $89,945
• Composite: 31.25/100
• National rank: #6028
• State rank: #179 of 620 in IL

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #4272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aurora, IL
• County: Will County · 412,448 people
• City population: 186,692
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 16,789
• Household income: $136,726
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 19.0

Population outlook (Will County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 705,368 people
• By 2030: 708,154 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 702,692 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 680,249 · -3.6%
• By 2075: 611,990 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 516,215 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Asian 19% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scandinavian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Other Indo-European 11% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Will

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.1% · R 48.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 13.2pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+8.3 2016: D+5.7 2012: D+3.7 2008: D+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.31%
• Current HPI: 232.382
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B