1782 FM 2951 #18

Graford, TX 76449

$410,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 183 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,320/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax + insurance: −$683
• HOA: −$450
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-1,451/mo
• Annual: $-17,412/yr
• Cap rate: 2.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.17%
• DSCR: 0.33
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $114,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $410k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (51.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (43.4% below list).
• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($361k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (51.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#856 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime F.
• Graford ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #817 of 1,141 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Graford School (math 37% / reading 42%, 321 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 523 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 0.8% in Graford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?