1782 FM 2951 #18 · Graford, TX 76449

$410,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 183 Days on market

Built 2005 Good condition $342/sqft · 23% below area Est $531k · 23% under $450/mo HOA · 19% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.3/30.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming cottage-style lake retreat perfectly positioned on the peninsula with beautiful lake views and unbeatable access to everything you love about lake living. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is being offered fully furnished, making it truly turnkey and ready for immediate enjoyment or rental income. Enjoy access to the resort-style pool overlooking the lake, just steps away, and take advantage of the rental-friendly community for excellent investment potential. Whether you’re relaxing on the patio, entertaining guests, or heading out to nearby restaurants just minutes away, this property delivers the ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and lifestyle. A perfect weekend escape, or income-producing lake getaway — this one checks all the boxes.

Key facts

• Lake views
• Turnkey
• Community pool

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• ACCESS TO RESORT-STYLE POOL
• RENTAL-FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• TURNKEY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $410k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (51.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (43.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (51.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 0.8% in Graford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#856 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime F.
• Graford ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #817 of 1,141 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Graford School (math 37% / reading 42%, 321 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 523 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($361k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $200,041 (51.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.17%
• DSCR: 0.33
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $531,052
• List price: $410,000
• Delta: -22.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1782 FM 2951 #3	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	7mo	$449,000	$374	92
1782 FM 2951 #20	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,200 (0%)	12mo	$499,000	$416	89
1782 Fm 2951 #2	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (-5%)	3mo	$325,000	$284	79
1782 FM 2951 #28	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+23%)	6mo	$649,000	$440	68
1935 Deer Trail Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+3%)	6mo	$899,000	$730	61
3412 Scenic Point Rd #101	1.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,193 (-1%)	5mo	$555,000	$465	53
1925 Fawn	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	13mo	$830,000	$618	44
1921 Buck Run	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+15%)	14mo	$1,095,000	$796	40
1914 Roadrunner Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+17%)	9mo	$355,000	$253	37
3412 Scenic Point Rd #105	1.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,193 (-1%)	30mo	$579,000	$485	37
1899 Poston Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+20%)	28mo	$550,000	$382	36
1972 Quail Run	0.80mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+19%)	3mo	$395,000	$277	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -45.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-158,540
• Equity at exit: $61,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -82.0%
• Equity multiple: -1.23×
• Total profit: $-255,785
• Equity at exit: $35,449

Cash invested: $114,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Months of supply: 3.0 mo (33%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $790,000 ($654/sqft)
• Median days on market: 94 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -32.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76449

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Active inventory: 523
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,320 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$512 /mo · $6,150/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$450
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-1,451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,156

Max offer price $200,041

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,168	-5% $-1,309	+0% $-1,451	+5% $-1,593	+10% $-1,734
Rent	-10% $-1,634	-5% $-1,543	+0% $-1,451	+5% $-1,359	+10% $-1,268
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,245	-0.5pp $-1,347	base $-1,451	+0.5pp $-1,557	+1.0pp $-1,665

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,500
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail $450/mo · $5,400/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $410,000 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $410,000 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $410,000 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $410,000 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $410,000 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $410,000 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $410,000 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $410,000 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $410,000 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $410,000 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $410,000 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    price $410,000 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $425,000 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $425,000 Active 166 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $425,000 Active 165 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $425,000 Active 162 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $425,000 Active 160 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $425,000 Active 159 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $425,000 Active 158 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $425,000 Active 157 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $425,000 Active 156 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    days on market $425,000 Active 155 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $425,000 Active 154 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $425,000 Active 153 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $425,000 Active 152 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $425,000 Active 151 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $425,000 Active 150 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $425,000 Active 149 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $425,000 Active 148 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 147 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 146 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 145 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $425,000 Active 144 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $425,000 Active 143 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $425,000 Active 142 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $425,000 Active 141 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $425,000 Active 139 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $425,000 Active 136 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $425,000 Active 135 DOM
40. 2026-06-19
    days on market $425,000 Active 133 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $425,000 Active 132 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $425,000 Active 131 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $425,000 Active 130 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $425,000 Active 129 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $425,000 Active 127 DOM
46. 2026-06-12
    pricedays on market $425,000 Active 126 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $475,000 Active 123 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $475,000 Active 122 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $475,000 Active 121 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $475,000 Active 119 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,834
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$6,150
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,227
• − Management: −$2,227
• − HOA: −$5,400
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable loss: −$25,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,027
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,000–$18,000 screening

This charming lakefront property is move-in ready with a modern interior and exterior. It offers excellent investment potential for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrade to smart home technology — Improves convenience and adds value for both buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

High Graford School

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,275
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #10225
• State rank: #817 of 1141 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Graford

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #856
• US rank: #15394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palo Pinto · 27,500 people
• Population (ZIP): 2,157
• Household income: $70,819
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.53%
• Current HPI: 241.6435
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $475,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-02-14 Listed $489,900 NTREIS
• 2023-06-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-06-09 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-06-09 Listed $515,000 NTREIS
• 2023-04-08 Listed $515,000 NTREIS