5362 Shen Ave

Jacksonville, FL 32205

$120,000B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 1947 · SingleFamily · Pending · 208 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,745/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $526/mo
• Annual: $6,309/yr
• Cap rate: 11.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.78%
• DSCR: 1.84
• 1% rule: 1.45%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $526 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ramona Boulevard Elementary School (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #2,037 of 2,144 statewide, top 96%, 288 students, 88% FRL); Lake Shore Middle School (math 25% / reading 22%, grade F, #536 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 972 students, 75% FRL); Riverside High School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #424 of 667 statewide, top 64%, 1,567 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 49% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $98k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.