155 Metzger Rd

Red Hook, NY 12571

$299,999C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,967 sqft · Built 2023 · Land · Active · 305 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,223/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $473/mo
• Annual: $5,676/yr
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.76%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#5 in NY, #113 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Red Hook Central School District (town): math 58% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #245 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mill Road-Intermediate Grades (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 325 students, 30% FRL); Linden Avenue Middle School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade D, #348 of 729 statewide, top 50%, 404 students, 24% FRL); Red Hook Senior High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 547 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 14 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $300k implies a 216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.7% in Red Hook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($119k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.