155 Metzger Rd · Red Hook, NY 12571

$299,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,967 sqft · Land public records · 305 Days on market

Built 2023 $153/sqft · 14% above area Est $263k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2023 Home on an Oversized Lot in Red Hook Tucked away at the rear of the community on a spacious lot, this stunning 2023 model home offers both comfort and style. Featuring 3 bedrooms, including a luxurious primary suite with a walk-in closet and spa-like bath complete with a private toilet room, soaking jet tub, and oversized tiled shower. A second full hall bath serves the additional bedrooms. The open-concept floor plan welcomes you with a versatile foyer that flows seamlessly into the dining area and modern kitchen, offering endless layout possibilities. A rare bonus feature is the full attic—perfect for storage, making this home stand out from typical manufactured homes. Conveniently located just 5 minutes to the Village of Red Hook, 12 minutes to Rhinebeck, and 15 minutes to the Rhinecliff Train Station, you’ll enjoy both privacy and easy access to everything the Hudson Valley has to offer. Don’t miss the chance to own this beautiful home at an incredible value—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Versatile foyer
• Spacious lot
• Oversized lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• FULL ATTIC
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LOT
• VERSATILE FOYER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.7% in Red Hook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#5 in NY, #113 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Red Hook Central School District (town): math 58% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #245 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mill Road-Intermediate Grades (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 325 students, 30% FRL); Linden Avenue Middle School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade D, #348 of 729 statewide, top 50%, 404 students, 24% FRL); Red Hook Senior High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 547 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($119k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $300k implies a 216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $263,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.76%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,185
• List price: $299,999
• Delta: 13.99%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-18,437
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $22,936
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12571

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,223 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $299,999

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $680	-5% $577	+0% $473	+5% $369	+10% $266
Rent	-10% $218	-5% $346	+0% $473	+5% $600	+10% $728
Rate	-1.0pp $624	-0.5pp $549	base $473	+0.5pp $395	+1.0pp $316

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
46 W Market St Red Hook, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$4,200	$2.62	15d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,999 Active 305 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,999 Active 302 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,999 Active 301 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,999 Active 300 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,999 Active 299 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,999 Active 297 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,999 Active 296 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,999 Active 294 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,999 Active 293 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,999 Active 292 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,999 Active 291 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,999 Active 288 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,999 Active 287 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,999 Active 286 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,999 Active 285 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,999 Active 284 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,999 Active 283 DOM
18. 2025-10-13
    price $299,999 1048-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1048 chars)

    Beautiful 2023 Home on an Oversized Lot in Red Hook Tucked away at the rear of the community on a spacious lot, this stunning 2023 model home offers both comfort and style. Featuring 3 bedrooms, including a luxurious primary suite with a walk-in closet and spa-like bath complete with a private toilet room, soaking jet tub, and oversized tiled shower. A second full hall bath serves the additional bedrooms. The open-concept floor plan welcomes you with a versatile foyer that flows seamlessly into the dining area and modern kitchen, offering endless layout possibilities. A rare bonus feature is the full attic—perfect for storage, making this home stand out from typical manufactured homes. Conveniently located just 5 minutes to the Village of Red Hook, 12 minutes to Rhinebeck, and 15 minutes to the Rhinecliff Train Station, you’ll enjoy both privacy and easy access to everything the Hudson Valley has to offer. Don’t miss the chance to own this beautiful home at an incredible value—schedule your showing today!

19. 2025-08-20
    listed $335,000 Active 1048-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1048 chars)

    Beautiful 2023 Home on an Oversized Lot in Red Hook Tucked away at the rear of the community on a spacious lot, this stunning 2023 model home offers both comfort and style. Featuring 3 bedrooms, including a luxurious primary suite with a walk-in closet and spa-like bath complete with a private toilet room, soaking jet tub, and oversized tiled shower. A second full hall bath serves the additional bedrooms. The open-concept floor plan welcomes you with a versatile foyer that flows seamlessly into the dining area and modern kitchen, offering endless layout possibilities. A rare bonus feature is the full attic—perfect for storage, making this home stand out from typical manufactured homes. Conveniently located just 5 minutes to the Village of Red Hook, 12 minutes to Rhinebeck, and 15 minutes to the Rhinecliff Train Station, you’ll enjoy both privacy and easy access to everything the Hudson Valley has to offer. Don’t miss the chance to own this beautiful home at an incredible value—schedule your showing today!

20. 2024-10-24
    soldstatus $95,000 Closed 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    How cute is this brand new single wide 14' x 60' home!? The entry to the home welcomes you with an open floorplan with plenty of dining and living area space to decorate. You even have a built in bookshelf and a peninsula to the kitchen! Everything is so bright and beautifully coordinated, even the window treatments. 2 bedrooms and 1 full baths makes a cozy set up for starting out or downsizing. Water, sewer, garbage and taxes are included in the $600 a month lot rent. This is a peaceful, quiet mobile home community surrounded by woods and at home country feel yet minutes to either the village of Red Hook OR Rhinebeck! Just a quick pretty drive in from RT.9, you'll love coming home everyday or how about up every weekend?? Let's go! This is your chance to grab a little slice of heaven for yourself....

21. 2024-09-30
    status Pending 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    How cute is this brand new single wide 14' x 60' home!? The entry to the home welcomes you with an open floorplan with plenty of dining and living area space to decorate. You even have a built in bookshelf and a peninsula to the kitchen! Everything is so bright and beautifully coordinated, even the window treatments. 2 bedrooms and 1 full baths makes a cozy set up for starting out or downsizing. Water, sewer, garbage and taxes are included in the $600 a month lot rent. This is a peaceful, quiet mobile home community surrounded by woods and at home country feel yet minutes to either the village of Red Hook OR Rhinebeck! Just a quick pretty drive in from RT.9, you'll love coming home everyday or how about up every weekend?? Let's go! This is your chance to grab a little slice of heaven for yourself....

22. 2024-08-16
    listed $95,000 Active 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    How cute is this brand new single wide 14' x 60' home!? The entry to the home welcomes you with an open floorplan with plenty of dining and living area space to decorate. You even have a built in bookshelf and a peninsula to the kitchen! Everything is so bright and beautifully coordinated, even the window treatments. 2 bedrooms and 1 full baths makes a cozy set up for starting out or downsizing. Water, sewer, garbage and taxes are included in the $600 a month lot rent. This is a peaceful, quiet mobile home community surrounded by woods and at home country feel yet minutes to either the village of Red Hook OR Rhinebeck! Just a quick pretty drive in from RT.9, you'll love coming home everyday or how about up every weekend?? Let's go! This is your chance to grab a little slice of heaven for yourself....

23. 2023-08-28
    soldstatus $120,000
24. 2023-07-21
    soldstatus $220,000
25. 2023-05-18
    listed $120,000
26. 2023-05-18
    listed $232,512
27. 2022-07-05
    soldstatus $165,000
28. 2022-03-24
    listed $165,000
29. 2021-12-02
    soldstatus $68,000
30. 2021-10-12
    listed $69,900
31. 2021-06-04
    soldstatus $95,000
32. 2021-04-15
    soldstatus $80,000
33. 2021-03-02
    listed $85,000
34. 2021-02-28
    historical
35. 2021-01-21
    listed $95,000
36. 2020-09-29
    listed $85,000
37. 2017-09-28
    soldstatus $51,000
38. 2017-08-02
    listed $52,000
39. 2017-03-22
    historical
40. 2016-09-22
    listed $72,500
41. 2014-10-30
    soldstatus $80,000
42. 2014-04-17
    listed $85,900
43. 2014-04-16
    historical
44. 2013-10-24
    listed $94,500
45. 2008-01-16
    historical
46. 2007-10-09
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,094
• − Management: −$3,094
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable income: $957
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$230
• After-tax cash flow: $5,447/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Hook Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624240
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,040
• Composite: 50.84/100
• National rank: #1801
• State rank: #245 of 590 in NY

Livability — Red Hook

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #113

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• City population: 10,108
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,108
• Household income: $118,967
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.80%
• Current HPI: 333.5841
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+217.5% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $299,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-20 Listed $335,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-24 Sold (MLS) $95,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-30 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-16 Listed $95,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-28 Sold (MLS) $120,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-21 Sold (MLS) $220,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-18 Listed $232,512 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-18 Listed $120,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-05 Sold (MLS) $165,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-24 Listed $165,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-02 Sold (MLS) $68,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-12 Listed $69,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-04 Sold (MLS) $95,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-15 Sold (MLS) $80,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-02 Listed $85,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-28 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-21 Listed $95,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-29 Listed $85,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-28 Sold (MLS) $51,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-02 Listed $52,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-22 Listed $72,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-30 Sold (MLS) $80,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-17 Listed $85,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-16 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-24 Listed $94,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-16 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2007-10-09 Listed — HGMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $34,753 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.