4789 E Peterson Rd

Duncan, MI 49967

$164,900D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 2009 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,055/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-293/mo
• Annual: $-3,522/yr
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.63%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $46,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-293 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (31.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (36.0% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $105k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ewen-Trout Creek Consolidated School District (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #510 of 760 in MI (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 111 units permitted in Houghton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Houghton County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $165k implies a 816% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.