4789 E Peterson Rd · Duncan, MI 49967

$164,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2009 4.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the tranquility of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula with this charming 2-3 bedroom, 1 bathroom cabin nestled on 4 private acres in the quiet community of Kenton in Duncan Township, Houghton County. Borders Ottawa National Forest to the north. Surrounded by towering hardwoods and abundant wildlife, this property offers direct access to endless outdoor recreation with Ottawa National Forest bordering the property to the north. The cozy cabin provides comfortable year-round living or the perfect seasonal getaway, featuring flexible living space to accommodate family and guests. A convenient 10x16 attached garage offers room for storage of ATVs, snowmobiles, hunting gear, and outdoor equipment. Whether you’re seeking a hunting camp, recreational retreat, or peaceful residence, this property is ideally situated to enjoy all the Northwoods have to offer. Explore miles of nearby trails, hunt, fish, hike, or simply relax and enjoy the quiet beauty of the surrounding forest. A rare opportunity to own an affordable slice of Upper Peninsula paradise with thousands of acres of public land right out your back door!

Key facts

• 4 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2009

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Electricity connected (100 Amp service, circuit breakers); Sewer connected (septic); Water connected (private drilled well); Internet DSL available; Electric water heater; Supplemental wood heat; LP/Propane gas
• Home design: Residential 1-1/2 story; Built in 2009; Below-grade area 48 (finished: none)
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Built in 2009; Crawl space and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Rural setting with rural view; Property is cleared and wooded; Deep lot and large frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (13 x 10); Range/Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom (11 x 14); Second-level bedroom (25 x 12); Second-level bedroom (approx. 12 wide)
• Bathrooms: Main-level full bathroom (approx. 11 x 4); One full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: LP/Propane gas heating fuel; Space heater; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: DSL internet available; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (6 x 3); Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-293 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (31.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (36.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ewen-Trout Creek Consolidated School District (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #510 of 760 in MI (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 111 units permitted in Houghton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Houghton County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $165k implies a 816% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $105,459 (36.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.63%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $62,405
• Equity at exit: $139,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.26×
• Total profit: $196,570
• Equity at exit: $291,008

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49967

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,055 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,318/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,426

Max offer price $113,055

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 693-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1135 chars)

   Escape to the tranquility of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula with this charming 2-3 bedroom, 1 bathroom cabin nestled on 4 private acres in the quiet community of Kenton in Duncan Township, Houghton County. Borders Ottawa National Forest to the north. Surrounded by towering hardwoods and abundant wildlife, this property offers direct access to endless outdoor recreation with Ottawa National Forest bordering the property to the north. The cozy cabin provides comfortable year-round living or the perfect seasonal getaway, featuring flexible living space to accommodate family and guests. A convenient 10x16 attached garage offers room for storage of ATVs, snowmobiles, hunting gear, and outdoor equipment. Whether you’re seeking a hunting camp, recreational retreat, or peaceful residence, this property is ideally situated to enjoy all the Northwoods have to offer. Explore miles of nearby trails, hunt, fish, hike, or simply relax and enjoy the quiet beauty of the surrounding forest. A rare opportunity to own an affordable slice of Upper Peninsula paradise with thousands of acres of public land right out your back door!

2. 2026-06-18
   listed $164,900 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (1135 chars)

   Escape to the tranquility of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula with this charming 2-3 bedroom, 1 bathroom cabin nestled on 4 private acres in the quiet community of Kenton in Duncan Township, Houghton County. Borders Ottawa National Forest to the north. Surrounded by towering hardwoods and abundant wildlife, this property offers direct access to endless outdoor recreation with Ottawa National Forest bordering the property to the north. The cozy cabin provides comfortable year-round living or the perfect seasonal getaway, featuring flexible living space to accommodate family and guests. A convenient 10x16 attached garage offers room for storage of ATVs, snowmobiles, hunting gear, and outdoor equipment. Whether you’re seeking a hunting camp, recreational retreat, or peaceful residence, this property is ideally situated to enjoy all the Northwoods have to offer. Explore miles of nearby trails, hunt, fish, hike, or simply relax and enjoy the quiet beauty of the surrounding forest. A rare opportunity to own an affordable slice of Upper Peninsula paradise with thousands of acres of public land right out your back door!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,318 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,429 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$111/yr (+$9/mo · 4.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,318
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,012
• − Management: −$1,012
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$6,546
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,571
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ewen-Trout Creek Consolidated School District
• NCES district ID: 2600014
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,684
• Composite: 29.63/100
• National rank: #11747
• State rank: #510 of 760 in MI

Livability — Duncan

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 366

Population outlook (Houghton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,073 people
• By 2030: 34,645 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 33,248 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 31,625 · -9.8%
• By 2075: 28,105 · -19.9%
• By 2100: 23,274 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Houghton

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.7% · R 57.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -3.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+14.2 2016: R+15.7 2012: R+10.2 2008: R+3.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.22%
• Current HPI: 169.1324
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+816.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $164,900 UPAR
• 2026-06-18 Listed $164,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $2,318 · +43.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.