5519 Denver St NE

St. Petersburg, FL 33703

$269,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Pending · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,914/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$882
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$822
• Net cashflow: $799/mo
• Annual: $9,589/yr
• Cap rate: 11.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.53%
• DSCR: 1.87
• 1% rule: 1.45%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $799 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $269k).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $261k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shore Acres Elementary School (math 61% / reading 52%, grade C+, #816 of 2,144 statewide, top 39%, 709 students, 46% FRL); Northeast High School (math 35% / reading 47%, grade F, #289 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 1,736 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 451 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $131k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 2.6% in St. Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,914/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($95k/yr) (locally 509% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.