531 Forest St

St. Paul, MN 55106

$229,900C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · Built 1902 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,718/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$578
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $364/mo
• Annual: $4,365/yr
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.78%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $64,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $226k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: American Indian Magnet School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #800 of 857 statewide, top 95%, 524 students, 88% FRL); Battle Creek Middle (math 4% / reading 14%, grade F, #252 of 258 statewide, top 98%, 693 students, 85% FRL); Harding Senior High (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #424 of 471 statewide, top 90%, 1,717 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 64% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Paul Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $2,718/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 2046% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.