531 Forest St · St. Paul, MN 55106

$229,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1902 4,791 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

property has some updated plumbing and electric. Nice big garage, close to downtown St Paul and Metro State. Kitchen has been updated with nice cabinets and granite counter tops.

Key facts

• Oversized garage
• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OVERSIZED GARAGE
• DAYTON'S BLUFF NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage (23 x 23); Garage approximately 733 sq ft
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; Two levels; Entry level: Main
• Construction: Block foundation; Foundation area 536
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.11 acres (40 x 120); Screened porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (two on the upper level, one unspecified); Primary and additional bedrooms on upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Dining room on the main level; Living room on the main level; Screened porch on the main level; Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $226k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,718/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 2046% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $226,451 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.78%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,715
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $66,787
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55106

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,718 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$482 /mo · $5,788/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,258

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $494	-5% $429	+0% $364	+5% $299	+10% $234
Rent	-10% $149	-5% $256	+0% $364	+5% $471	+10% $579
Rate	-1.0pp $480	-0.5pp $422	base $364	+0.5pp $304	+1.0pp $244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
330 9th St E St Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	978	$2,495	$2.55	4d	3	1.32mi
250 6th St E St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	980	$2,868	$2.93	0d	17	1.38mi
240 5th St E St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	949	$2,775	$2.92	0d	9	1.40mi
333 Sibley St Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1358	$3,269	$2.41	11d	10	1.46mi
180 E Kellogg Blvd St Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.5	1436	$4,595	$3.20	0d	21	1.47mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-13
   historical Contingent - Inspection 527-char remark
2. 2026-05-08
   price $229,900 527-char remark
3. 2026-04-30
   listed $249,900 Active 527-char remark
4. 2018-02-27
   soldstatus $500
5. 2016-04-07
   soldstatus $64,000 Sold 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   property has some updated plumbing and electric. Nice big garage, close to downtown St Paul and Metro State. Kitchen has been updated with nice cabinets and granite counter tops.

6. 2016-03-16
   status Pending 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   property has some updated plumbing and electric. Nice big garage, close to downtown St Paul and Metro State. Kitchen has been updated with nice cabinets and granite counter tops.

7. 2016-03-10
   historical Contingent - Inspection 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   property has some updated plumbing and electric. Nice big garage, close to downtown St Paul and Metro State. Kitchen has been updated with nice cabinets and granite counter tops.

8. 2016-02-25
   price $74,900 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   property has some updated plumbing and electric. Nice big garage, close to downtown St Paul and Metro State. Kitchen has been updated with nice cabinets and granite counter tops.

9. 2016-01-26
   listed $99,900 Active 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   property has some updated plumbing and electric. Nice big garage, close to downtown St Paul and Metro State. Kitchen has been updated with nice cabinets and granite counter tops.

10. 2004-08-04
    soldstatus $130,000
11. 2004-06-24
    soldstatus $130,000

    Show marketing remark (99 chars)

    Great starter, enclosed porch, large kitchen, new vinyl windows. Garage is 24x24. Great workshop.

12. 2004-06-11
    historical

    Show marketing remark (99 chars)

    Great starter, enclosed porch, large kitchen, new vinyl windows. Garage is 24x24. Great workshop.

13. 2004-04-01
    listed $135,000

    Show marketing remark (99 chars)

    Great starter, enclosed porch, large kitchen, new vinyl windows. Garage is 24x24. Great workshop.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,788 · $482/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,788 · $482/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$5,788
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,610
• − Management: −$2,610
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable income: $898
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$216
• After-tax cash flow: $4,150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 56,708
• Household income: $70,187
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2046.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 34% White 32% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 27% Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -239.48%
• Current HPI: 288.7205
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.26%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+70.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $229,900 Public Records
• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $229,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $229,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $249,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $500 Public Records
• 2016-04-07 Sold (MLS) $64,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-16 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-10 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-25 Price Changed $74,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-26 Listed $99,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-24 Sold (MLS) $130,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-01 Listed $135,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,788 · +14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.