3169 Retama Run

Apex, NC 27562

$449,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,961 sqft · Built 2019 · Townhouse · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,851/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax + insurance: −$526
• HOA: −$166
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $-795/mo
• Annual: $-9,534/yr
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.58%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $125,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $449k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-795 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (31.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (36.5% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $285k (36.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#3 in NC, #380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living D.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Scotts Ridge Elementary (math 76% / reading 72%, grade A, #67 of 1,410 statewide, top 5%, 766 students, 8% FRL); Apex Friendship Middle (math 72% / reading 73%, grade A, #14 of 475 statewide, top 3%, 1,397 students, 12% FRL); Apex Friendship High (math 77% / reading 81%, grade A-, #82 of 535 statewide, top 15%, 2,772 students, 10% FRL) — zoned schools average 10% FRL vs 30% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 75% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Wake County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $370k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 49% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.3% in Apex — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.