3169 Retama Run · Apex, NC 27562

$449,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,961 sqft · Townhouse public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2019 3,920 sqft lot Est $455k · at est. $166/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

No need to to build when you can have this almost new, wonderfully maintained end-unit townhome. Great neighborhood full of amenities such as pool, fitness room, pickleball, basketball, dog park and more! This unit features a fenced in back yard with a patio, plus woods & pond behind for great privacy. A convenient second floor laundry room, main fl office/den, snack bar, walk-in pantry, & a brick, gas fireplace are just a few of the other highlights to be found.

Key facts

• Woodbury community
• End unit townhomes
• Luxury kitchen

Tags

• END UNIT TOWNHOMES
• LUXURY KITCHEN
• NEW LUXURY VINYL PLANK
• FENCED IN
• PATIO
• WOODBURY COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned PUD-C
• HOA & community: Association managed by HRW Mgmt / HRW; Monthly association fee of $99; Additional semi-annual fee of $405; Association covers grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Additional open parking (4 spaces); Total parking for 6 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels
• Construction: Fiber cement construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built living area approximately 2,006
• Exterior features: Patio; Back yard with vinyl fencing; End unit common wall

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas, zoned); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Washer/Dryer
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-795 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (31.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (36.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $285k (36.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.3% in Apex — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#3 in NC, #380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living D.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Scotts Ridge Elementary (math 76% / reading 72%, grade A, #67 of 1,410 statewide, top 5%, 766 students, 8% FRL); Apex Friendship Middle (math 72% / reading 73%, grade A, #14 of 475 statewide, top 3%, 1,397 students, 12% FRL); Apex Friendship High (math 77% / reading 81%, grade A-, #82 of 535 statewide, top 15%, 2,772 students, 10% FRL) — zoned schools average 10% FRL vs 30% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 75% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Wake County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $370k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 49% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,098 (36.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.58%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $454,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3157 Retama Run	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,909 (-3%)	1mo	$412,000	$216	93
2474 Englemann Dr #372	0.50mi	3/2.5	2,045 (+4%)	2mo	$474,999	$232	68
3165 Mission Olive Pl #308	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,045 (+4%)	2mo	$476,570	$233	66
3131 Cathedral Comb Dr #265	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,915 (-2%)	1mo	$428,695	$224	63
3149 Cathedral Comb Dr #257	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,915 (-2%)	2mo	$432,695	$226	62
2471 Englemann Dr #367	0.51mi	3/3.5	1,892 (-4%)	6mo	$410,000	$217	61
3145 Cathedral Comb Pl #259	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,892 (-4%)	2mo	$421,895	$223	59
3147 Cathedral Comb Pl #258	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,892 (-4%)	2mo	$420,645	$222	59
3140 Cathedral Comb Dr #253	0.73mi	3/2.5	2,045 (+4%)	0mo	$482,715	$236	59
3177 Mission Olive Pl #344	0.54mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,069 (+6%)	3mo	$508,000	$246	54
3169 Mission Olive Pl #310	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,176 (+11%)	1mo	$538,345	$247	48
3151 Cathedral Comb Dr #256	0.72mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,092 (+7%)	2mo	$521,365	$249	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $193,941
• Equity at exit: $404,495

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $610,937
• Equity at exit: $872,308

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27562

• Home prices YoY: 13.7%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,851 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$339 /mo · $4,069/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$166
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $-795

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,857

Max offer price $308,641

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-540	-5% $-667	+0% $-795	+5% $-922	+10% $-1,049
Rent	-10% $-1,020	-5% $-907	+0% $-795	+5% $-682	+10% $-569
Rate	-1.0pp $-568	-0.5pp $-680	base $-795	+0.5pp $-911	+1.0pp $-1,029

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3130 Zebroid Way New Hill, NC	4.0	3.0	2620	$2,900	$1.11	25d	1	0.15mi
2280 Grants Pass Sta Apex, NC	4.0	3.5	2416	$2,545	$1.05	25d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $166 · $1,992/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $449,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $449,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $449,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $449,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-04-03
    listed $449,000 Active
17. 2021-05-07
    soldstatus $370,500 Closed 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    No need to to build when you can have this almost new, wonderfully maintained end-unit townhome. Great neighborhood full of amenities such as pool, fitness room, pickleball, basketball, dog park and more! This unit features a fenced in back yard with a patio, plus woods & pond behind for great privacy. A convenient second floor laundry room, main fl office/den, snack bar, walk-in pantry, & a brick, gas fireplace are just a few of the other highlights to be found.

18. 2021-05-07
    soldstatus $370,500

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    No need to to build when you can have this almost new, wonderfully maintained end-unit townhome. Great neighborhood full of amenities such as pool, fitness room, pickleball, basketball, dog park and more! This unit features a fenced in back yard with a patio, plus woods & pond behind for great privacy. A convenient second floor laundry room, main fl office/den, snack bar, walk-in pantry, & a brick, gas fireplace are just a few of the other highlights to be found.

19. 2021-05-06
    status Pending 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    No need to to build when you can have this almost new, wonderfully maintained end-unit townhome. Great neighborhood full of amenities such as pool, fitness room, pickleball, basketball, dog park and more! This unit features a fenced in back yard with a patio, plus woods & pond behind for great privacy. A convenient second floor laundry room, main fl office/den, snack bar, walk-in pantry, & a brick, gas fireplace are just a few of the other highlights to be found.

20. 2021-04-12
    historical Contingent 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    No need to to build when you can have this almost new, wonderfully maintained end-unit townhome. Great neighborhood full of amenities such as pool, fitness room, pickleball, basketball, dog park and more! This unit features a fenced in back yard with a patio, plus woods & pond behind for great privacy. A convenient second floor laundry room, main fl office/den, snack bar, walk-in pantry, & a brick, gas fireplace are just a few of the other highlights to be found.

21. 2021-04-09
    listed $350,000 Active 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    No need to to build when you can have this almost new, wonderfully maintained end-unit townhome. Great neighborhood full of amenities such as pool, fitness room, pickleball, basketball, dog park and more! This unit features a fenced in back yard with a patio, plus woods & pond behind for great privacy. A convenient second floor laundry room, main fl office/den, snack bar, walk-in pantry, & a brick, gas fireplace are just a few of the other highlights to be found.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,069 · $339/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,069 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 49% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$4,069
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,737
• − Management: −$2,737
• − HOA: −$1,992
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$17,781
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,268
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wake County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704720
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,509
• Composite: 49.41/100
• National rank: #2010
• State rank: #35 of 178 in NC

Livability — Apex

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #380

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apex, NC
• City population: 94,677
• Population (ZIP): 5,044

Population outlook (Wake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,293,152 people
• By 2030: 1,428,223 · +10.4%
• By 2040: 1,698,188 · +31.3%
• By 2050: 1,955,807 · +51.2%
• By 2075: 2,520,273 · +94.9%
• By 2100: 2,893,335 · +123.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 20% Slovak 5% German 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.5) · D 61.9% · R 36.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.1pp toward D · 2008: 14.4pp · 2024: 25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.5 2020: D+26.4 2016: D+20.5 2012: D+10.2 2008: D+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.90%
• Current HPI: 331.8205
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+28.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $449,000 TMLS
• 2021-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $370,500 Public Records
• 2021-05-07 Sold (MLS) $370,500 TMLS
• 2021-05-06 Pending — TMLS
• 2021-04-12 Contingent — TMLS
• 2021-04-09 Listed $350,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+33.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,069 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.