4449 Gile Hollow Rd

Weston Mills, NY 14743

$159,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,280/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$389
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $-211/mo
• Annual: $-2,532/yr
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.19%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (19.5% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#667 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hinsdale Central School District (town): math 60% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #297 of 755 in NY (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $159k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.