215 Elsie Ave

Agua Dulce, TX 78330

$135,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · Built 2014 · Manufactured · Active · 457 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,345/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$347
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $7/mo
• Annual: $84/yr
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.10%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($84/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (0.4% below list).
• It's been on market 457 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,202 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Agua Dulce ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #336 of 1,141 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Agua Dulce El (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 171 students, 79% FRL); Agua Dulce H S (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 237 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 57% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Agua Dulce ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 457 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: roof — Aged appearance
• Major: exterior paint — Weathered and faded
• Major: fencing — Needs repair or replacement