215 Elsie Ave · Agua Dulce, TX 78330

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · Manufactured · 457 Days on market

Built 2014 Fair condition 0.34 ac lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* NEW PRICE REDUCTION!! * Buyers, if you're looking for a move-in ready home, this property is ready & waiting! This 2014 double-wide manufactured home sits on 2 full, corner lots, which total over 1/3rd of an acre! There is a detached 2-car carport that has a storage room & there is also another detached storage building in the back yard area. There are wood decks in the front & in the back. The yard is FULLY fenced. This well-kept home features a nice, open floor plan with split bedrooms. This is an all electric home. With an acceptable offer, the dishwasher, refrigerator, stove, washer & dryer WILL CONVEY!! This property will NOT disappoint! Make this one YOURS, call today!

Key facts

• Storage room
• Detached carport
• Wood decks

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• CORNER LOTS
• DETACHED CARPORT
• STORAGE ROOM
• DETACHED STORAGE BUILDING
• WOOD DECKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($84/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,202 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Agua Dulce ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #336 of 1,141 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Agua Dulce El (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 171 students, 79% FRL); Agua Dulce H S (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 237 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 57% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Agua Dulce ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 457 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 457 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.10%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $16,804
• Equity at exit: $60,702

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $59,347
• Equity at exit: $93,549

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78330

• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,345 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,336

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $100	-5% $54	+0% $7	+5% $-40	+10% $-86
Rent	-10% $-99	-5% $-46	+0% $7	+5% $60	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $75	-0.5pp $41	base $7	+0.5pp $-28	+1.0pp $-64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 457 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 456 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 454 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 453 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 452 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 451 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 449 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 448 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 445 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 444 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 443 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 442 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 439 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 438 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 437 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 436 DOM
17. 2026-01-08
    price $135,000 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    * NEW PRICE REDUCTION!! * Buyers, if you're looking for a move-in ready home, this property is ready & waiting! This 2014 double-wide manufactured home sits on 2 full, corner lots, which total over 1/3rd of an acre! There is a detached 2-car carport that has a storage room & there is also another detached storage building in the back yard area. There are wood decks in the front & in the back. The yard is FULLY fenced. This well-kept home features a nice, open floor plan with split bedrooms. This is an all electric home. With an acceptable offer, the dishwasher, refrigerator, stove, washer & dryer WILL CONVEY!! This property will NOT disappoint! Make this one YOURS, call today!

18. 2025-10-04
    price $145,000 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    * NEW PRICE REDUCTION!! * Buyers, if you're looking for a move-in ready home, this property is ready & waiting! This 2014 double-wide manufactured home sits on 2 full, corner lots, which total over 1/3rd of an acre! There is a detached 2-car carport that has a storage room & there is also another detached storage building in the back yard area. There are wood decks in the front & in the back. The yard is FULLY fenced. This well-kept home features a nice, open floor plan with split bedrooms. This is an all electric home. With an acceptable offer, the dishwasher, refrigerator, stove, washer & dryer WILL CONVEY!! This property will NOT disappoint! Make this one YOURS, call today!

19. 2025-08-25
    price $155,000 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    * NEW PRICE REDUCTION!! * Buyers, if you're looking for a move-in ready home, this property is ready & waiting! This 2014 double-wide manufactured home sits on 2 full, corner lots, which total over 1/3rd of an acre! There is a detached 2-car carport that has a storage room & there is also another detached storage building in the back yard area. There are wood decks in the front & in the back. The yard is FULLY fenced. This well-kept home features a nice, open floor plan with split bedrooms. This is an all electric home. With an acceptable offer, the dishwasher, refrigerator, stove, washer & dryer WILL CONVEY!! This property will NOT disappoint! Make this one YOURS, call today!

20. 2025-07-22
    price $164,000 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    * NEW PRICE REDUCTION!! * Buyers, if you're looking for a move-in ready home, this property is ready & waiting! This 2014 double-wide manufactured home sits on 2 full, corner lots, which total over 1/3rd of an acre! There is a detached 2-car carport that has a storage room & there is also another detached storage building in the back yard area. There are wood decks in the front & in the back. The yard is FULLY fenced. This well-kept home features a nice, open floor plan with split bedrooms. This is an all electric home. With an acceptable offer, the dishwasher, refrigerator, stove, washer & dryer WILL CONVEY!! This property will NOT disappoint! Make this one YOURS, call today!

21. 2025-03-21
    listed $169,000 Active 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    * NEW PRICE REDUCTION!! * Buyers, if you're looking for a move-in ready home, this property is ready & waiting! This 2014 double-wide manufactured home sits on 2 full, corner lots, which total over 1/3rd of an acre! There is a detached 2-car carport that has a storage room & there is also another detached storage building in the back yard area. There are wood decks in the front & in the back. The yard is FULLY fenced. This well-kept home features a nice, open floor plan with split bedrooms. This is an all electric home. With an acceptable offer, the dishwasher, refrigerator, stove, washer & dryer WILL CONVEY!! This property will NOT disappoint! Make this one YOURS, call today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$2,142
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,291
• − Management: −$1,291
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$2,103
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$505
• After-tax cash flow: $589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2014 double-wide manufactured home requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — Aged appearance
• Major exterior paint — Weathered and faded
• Major fencing — Needs repair or replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint and repair the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both repair the roof — Critical for structural integrity and longevity
• Both repair the siding — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency
• Both repair the fencing — Enhances security and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Aged appearance	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Weathered and faded	Major	$15,000–50,000
fencing · Needs repair or replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint and repair the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both repair the roof — Critical for structural integrity and longevity ↑
• Both repair the siding — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑
• Both repair the fencing — Enhances security and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Agua Dulce ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807530
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,974
• Composite: 45.19/100
• National rank: #5785
• State rank: #336 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Agua Dulce

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1202
• US rank: #21027

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Agua Dulce, TX
• Population (ZIP): 429

Population outlook (Nueces County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 418,037 people
• By 2030: 447,123 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 505,911 · +21.0%
• By 2050: 567,522 · +35.8%
• By 2075: 729,686 · +74.6%
• By 2100: 847,087 · +102.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% Two or more races 41% White 20% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 68%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Philippines, Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 37% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Nueces

• 2024 margin: R (+11.5) · D 43.8% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.4pp · 2024: -11.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.5 2020: R+2.9 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $135,000 CBMLS
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $145,000 CBMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $155,000 CBMLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $164,000 CBMLS
• 2025-03-21 Listed $169,000 CBMLS