1235 Smoke Hill Ln

Auburn, GA 30548

$374,800D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,244 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,583/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,965
• Tax + insurance: −$620
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-544/mo
• Annual: $-6,532/yr
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.22%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $104,944

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-544 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (25.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (31.1% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $258k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#41 in GA, #4,693 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Duncan Creek Elementary (math 63% / reading 63%, grade B, #106 of 1,228 statewide, top 9%, 1,397 students, 29% FRL); Osborne Middle School (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B+, #33 of 470 statewide, top 7%, 1,667 students, 25% FRL); Mill Creek High School (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #61 of 424 statewide, top 15%, 2,839 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 26% FRL vs 47% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Gwinnett County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 756 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 36% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $121k; list at $375k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.