1235 Smoke Hill Ln · Auburn, GA 30548

$374,800

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,244 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1997 0.98 ac lot $167/sqft · 8% above area Est $476k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the exceptional potential of this impressive split level residence offering 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and approximately 2244 square feet of versatile living space. Designed with flexibility and comfort in mind, this home features an expansive layout with multiple bonus living areas that can easily serve as a media room, home office, playroom, guest retreat, or additional entertainment space. The lower level adds valuable function and separation, while the 2 car garage, inviting fireplace, deck, and spacious lot create a property that feels both substantial and full of opportunity. Nestled in Chimney Spring on approximately 0.98 acres, this home delivers space, presence, and endless possibilities for buyers seeking room to spread out and make it their own in a highly desirable Hoschton location.

Key facts

• Lower level
• Inviting fireplace
• Deck

Tags

• SPLIT LEVEL RESIDENCE
• MULTIPLE BONUS LIVING AREAS
• LOWER LEVEL
• 2 CAR GARAGE
• INVITING FIREPLACE
• DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-544 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (25.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (31.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#41 in GA, #4,693 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Duncan Creek Elementary (math 63% / reading 63%, grade B, #106 of 1,228 statewide, top 9%, 1,397 students, 29% FRL); Osborne Middle School (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B+, #33 of 470 statewide, top 7%, 1,667 students, 25% FRL); Mill Creek High School (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #61 of 424 statewide, top 15%, 2,839 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 26% FRL vs 47% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Gwinnett County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 756 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 36% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $121k; list at $375k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,346 (31.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.22%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $476,109
• List price: $374,800
• Delta: -21.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1215 Smoke Hill Ln	0.04mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,245 (0%)	11mo	$419,900	$187	84
1345 Smoke Hill Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,346 (+4%)	13mo	$416,297	$177	75
1813 Westfall Lndg	0.46mi	4/3.5	2,328 (+4%)	1mo	$465,000	$200	69
4048 Brookmont Way	0.53mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,262 (+1%)	2mo	$430,000	$190	67
4212 Gold Springs Ln	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,201 (-2%)	4mo	$407,000	$185	60
4266 Azalea Ridge Way	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,579 (+15%)	7mo	$515,000	$200	60
1883 Westfall Lndg	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,331 (+4%)	15mo	$467,000	$200	56
1270 Platinum Dr	0.65mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,324 (+4%)	12mo	$420,000	$181	49
1620 Branthaven Ln	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,435 (+8%)	10mo	$525,000	$216	43
4210 Platinum Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,050 (-9%)	8mo	$425,000	$207	42
5288 Mulberry Pass Ct	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,579 (+15%)	9mo	$447,982	$174	39
4260 Platinum Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,918 (-14%)	15mo	$425,000	$222	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-102,936
• Equity at exit: $55,884

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-163,387
• Equity at exit: $32,406

Cash invested: $104,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30548

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 756
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,583 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,965
• Tax from tax record: −$464 /mo · $5,563/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,272

Max offer price $278,647

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-332	-5% $-438	+0% $-544	+5% $-650	+10% $-756
Rent	-10% $-748	-5% $-646	+0% $-544	+5% $-442	+10% $-340
Rate	-1.0pp $-356	-0.5pp $-449	base $-544	+0.5pp $-641	+1.0pp $-740

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,700
• Closing costs: $11,244
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1510 Smoke Hill Dr Hoschton, GA	3.0	2.0	1686	$2,116	$1.26	7d	1	0.25mi
5030 Sierra Creek Dr Hoschton, GA	4.0	3.0	2579	$2,600	$1.01	45d	1	0.30mi
1935 Holman Forest Dr Hoschton, GA	4.0	3.0	2600	$2,600	$1.00	4d	1	0.77mi
4615 Wheeler Creek Dr Hoschton, GA	4.0	3.0	2263	$2,409	$1.06	7d	1	0.93mi
4264 Milford Pl Hoschton, GA	3.0	2.5	2075	$2,300	$1.11	26d	1	1.10mi
1880 Hampton Walk Ct Hoschton, GA	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,900	$1.87	45d	1	1.10mi
5191 Woodline View Cir Hoschton, GA	4.0	4.0	2782	$3,000	$1.08	0d	1	1.25mi
1850 Lily Stem Trl Auburn, GA	4.0	2.5	1852	$1,950	$1.05	45d	1	1.36mi
5270 Woodline View Cir Auburn, GA	4.0	3.0	2862	$2,800	$0.98	6d	1	1.39mi
5144 Aylesbury Ct Hoschton, GA	4.0	3.5	2074	$2,250	$1.08	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-05
   price $374,800 818-char remark

   Show marketing remark (821 chars)

   Discover the exceptional potential of this impressive split level residence offering 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and approximately 2244 square feet of versatile living space. Designed with flexibility and comfort in mind, this home features an expansive layout with multiple bonus living areas that can easily serve as a media room, home office, playroom, guest retreat, or additional entertainment space. The lower level adds valuable function and separation, while the 2 car garage, inviting fireplace, deck, and spacious lot create a property that feels both substantial and full of opportunity. Nestled in Chimney Spring on approximately 0.98 acres, this home delivers space, presence, and endless possibilities for buyers seeking room to spread out and make it their own in a highly desirable Hoschton location. ?

2. 2026-04-05
   price $374,800 821-char remark

   Show marketing remark (821 chars)

   Discover the exceptional potential of this impressive split level residence offering 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and approximately 2244 square feet of versatile living space. Designed with flexibility and comfort in mind, this home features an expansive layout with multiple bonus living areas that can easily serve as a media room, home office, playroom, guest retreat, or additional entertainment space. The lower level adds valuable function and separation, while the 2 car garage, inviting fireplace, deck, and spacious lot create a property that feels both substantial and full of opportunity. Nestled in Chimney Spring on approximately 0.98 acres, this home delivers space, presence, and endless possibilities for buyers seeking room to spread out and make it their own in a highly desirable Hoschton location. ?

3. 2026-04-05
   listed $274,900 New 818-char remark

   Show marketing remark (821 chars)

   Discover the exceptional potential of this impressive split level residence offering 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and approximately 2244 square feet of versatile living space. Designed with flexibility and comfort in mind, this home features an expansive layout with multiple bonus living areas that can easily serve as a media room, home office, playroom, guest retreat, or additional entertainment space. The lower level adds valuable function and separation, while the 2 car garage, inviting fireplace, deck, and spacious lot create a property that feels both substantial and full of opportunity. Nestled in Chimney Spring on approximately 0.98 acres, this home delivers space, presence, and endless possibilities for buyers seeking room to spread out and make it their own in a highly desirable Hoschton location. ?

4. 2026-04-05
   listed $274,900 Active 821-char remark

   Show marketing remark (821 chars)

   Discover the exceptional potential of this impressive split level residence offering 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and approximately 2244 square feet of versatile living space. Designed with flexibility and comfort in mind, this home features an expansive layout with multiple bonus living areas that can easily serve as a media room, home office, playroom, guest retreat, or additional entertainment space. The lower level adds valuable function and separation, while the 2 car garage, inviting fireplace, deck, and spacious lot create a property that feels both substantial and full of opportunity. Nestled in Chimney Spring on approximately 0.98 acres, this home delivers space, presence, and endless possibilities for buyers seeking room to spread out and make it their own in a highly desirable Hoschton location. ?

5. 2022-07-05
   historical
6. 2022-06-24
   status Back On Market
7. 2022-06-08
   historical On Hold
8. 2022-06-02
   status Back On Market
9. 2022-05-04
   status Under Contract
10. 2022-04-25
    listed $385,000 New
11. 2008-12-04
    soldstatus $121,000
12. 2008-06-25
    listed $139,900
13. 2004-01-21
    soldstatus $167,000
14. 2000-07-18
    soldstatus $152,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,563 · $464/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,563 · $464/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,995
• − Property taxes: −$5,563
• − Insurance: −$1,874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,480
• − Management: −$2,480
• − Depreciation: −$10,903
• Taxable loss: −$13,294
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,190
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gwinnett County
• NCES district ID: 1302550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $62,416
• Composite: 36.5/100
• National rank: #4648
• State rank: #32 of 174 in GA

Livability — Auburn

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #4693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Barrow County · 133,377 people
• City population: 21,624
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 26,232
• Household income: $111,257
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 520.0

Population outlook (Gwinnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,106,028 people
• By 2030: 1,211,414 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 1,422,277 · +28.6%
• By 2050: 1,623,204 · +46.8%
• By 2075: 2,105,240 · +90.3%
• By 2100: 2,443,321 · +120.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Gwinnett

• 2024 margin: D (+16.5) · D 57.6% · R 41.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +26.8pp toward D · 2008: -10.2pp · 2024: 16.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.5 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+5.8 2012: R+9.4 2008: R+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.49%
• Current HPI: 236.1853
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.44%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+146.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Price Changed $374,800 GAMLS
• 2026-04-05 Price Changed $374,800 FMLS
• 2026-04-05 Listed $274,900 FMLS
• 2026-04-05 Listed $274,900 GAMLS
• 2022-07-05 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2022-06-24 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2022-06-08 Delisted — GAMLS
• 2022-06-02 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2022-05-04 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-04-25 Listed $385,000 GAMLS
• 2008-12-04 Sold (MLS) $121,000 Hive MLS
• 2008-06-25 Listed $139,900 Hive MLS
• 2004-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $167,000 Public Records
• 2000-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $152,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,563 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.