3208 Apple Creek Ave

Heartland, TX 75114

$279,900F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,931 sqft · Built 2024 · Land · Active · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,234/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$917
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-671/mo
• Annual: $-8,048/yr
• Cap rate: 3.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.27%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-671 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (31.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (20.2% below list).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $192k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W A Martin El (math 41% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 71% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 41% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Market conditions: 802 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 4.6% in Heartland — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.