3208 Apple Creek Ave · Heartland, TX 75114

$279,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,931 sqft · Land public records · 130 Days on market

Built 2024 6,665 sqft lot $145/sqft · 11% below area Est $313k · 11% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 4 bedroom, 2 bath HistoryMaker home in the Heartland community offering an open-concept floor plan, spacious living area, private primary suite, and attached 2-car garage. Conveniently located near I-20 with access to neighborhood parks, trails, and community amenities. Kitchen Aid Refrigerator conveys; no other appliances included.

Key facts

• 6,665 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-671 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (31.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 4.6% in Heartland — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W A Martin El (math 41% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 71% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 41% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 802 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,187 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.27%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,955
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: -10.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-87,728
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.66×
• Total profit: $-130,004
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 802
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,234 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$801 /mo · $9,609/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-671

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,083

Max offer price $192,187

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-512	-5% $-591	+0% $-671	+5% $-750	+10% $-829
Rent	-10% $-847	-5% $-759	+0% $-671	+5% $-582	+10% $-494
Rate	-1.0pp $-530	-0.5pp $-599	base $-671	+0.5pp $-743	+1.0pp $-817

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3147 Blossom Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2177	$2,700	$1.24	45d	1	0.14mi
3028 Willow Wood Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,600	$1.47	45d	1	0.27mi
2624 Bartlett St Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.29mi
2826 Hudson Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,400	$1.46	8d	1	0.29mi
2745 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	26d	1	0.32mi
2739 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.33mi
2746 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.35mi
2237 Mustang Ghost Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1952	$2,040	$1.05	45d	1	0.36mi
2521 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.37mi
2513 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	26d	1	0.39mi
2510 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	26d	1	0.42mi
2409 Fleming Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	26d	1	0.42mi
3004 Dakota Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,300	$1.19	5d	1	0.43mi
3916 Ford Dr Heartland, TX	4.0	3.0	2484	$2,600	$1.05	22d	1	0.47mi
2919 Cascade Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,200	$1.49	45d	1	0.52mi
1799 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	45d	1	0.64mi
1793 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,769	$1.06	0d	1	0.66mi
1789 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,739	$1.04	4d	1	0.68mi
2306 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	45d	1	0.72mi
2302 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	4d	1	0.72mi
2296 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	2315	$1,720	$0.74	8d	1	0.73mi
2294 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,815	$1.43	26d	1	0.74mi
4001 Fairmont Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1545	$2,000	$1.29	45d	1	0.79mi
2511 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,799	$1.45	26d	1	0.84mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	26d	1	0.85mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	0d	1	0.85mi
2603 Khaju Grv Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,699	$1.34	4d	1	0.86mi
2504 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,799	$1.25	45d	1	0.88mi
3315 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,685	$1.17	45d	1	0.88mi
3352 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	0d	1	0.92mi
4009 Bighorn Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2515	$2,499	$0.99	45d	1	0.92mi
2908 Hearts Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	3.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	45d	1	0.93mi
4002 Bighorn Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,120	$1.55	3d	1	0.94mi
3941 Hometown Blvd Unit 3941 Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,400	$1.38	45d	1	0.95mi
3101 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,745	$1.38	26d	1	0.96mi
3103 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,729	$1.20	4d	1	0.96mi
3007 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,950	$1.35	45d	1	0.97mi
3121 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	45d	1	0.97mi
3104 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,675	$1.32	26d	1	0.99mi
2991 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,895	$1.50	45d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,900 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,900 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,900 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    price $279,900 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bedroom, 2 bath HistoryMaker home in the Heartland community offering an open-concept floor plan, spacious living area, private primary suite, and attached 2-car garage. Conveniently located near I-20 with access to neighborhood parks, trails, and community amenities. Kitchen Aid Refrigerator conveys; no other appliances included.

16. 2026-03-28
    price $295,000 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bedroom, 2 bath HistoryMaker home in the Heartland community offering an open-concept floor plan, spacious living area, private primary suite, and attached 2-car garage. Conveniently located near I-20 with access to neighborhood parks, trails, and community amenities. Kitchen Aid Refrigerator conveys; no other appliances included.

17. 2026-02-11
    listed $305,000 Active 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bedroom, 2 bath HistoryMaker home in the Heartland community offering an open-concept floor plan, spacious living area, private primary suite, and attached 2-car garage. Conveniently located near I-20 with access to neighborhood parks, trails, and community amenities. Kitchen Aid Refrigerator conveys; no other appliances included.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,609 · $801/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,609 · $801/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$9,609
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,144
• − Management: −$2,144
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$12,915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,100
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heartland, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 9,333
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $279,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $295,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $305,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+144.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,609 · +473.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.